Hong Kong: Selections for Sha Tin night of Dec. 6

Luke Middlebrook provides selections and analysis for the Sha Tin card, with a first post of midnight ET late Saturday night.

Sha Tin Selections

Race 1: #7 Beauty Missile, #3 Meepmeep, #1 Courier Magic, #14 Foremost Teddy
Race 2: #6 Glory Cloud, #8 Cheer For South, #5 Colourful Winner, #10 Double Bingo
Race 3: #7 Invictus Dragon, #1 Aurio, #5 Vigor Eye, #2 Brownneedsfurther
Race 4: #13 Quick Contribution, #7 Incredible Moment, #1 Jubilant Winner, #3 City Thunder
Race 5: #11 Better And Better, #3 Fit For Beauty, #2 With A Smile, #12 Positive Smile
Race 6: #5 We Are Hero, #13 Sparkling Fellow, #7 Fast Responder, #2 Horsepower
Race 7: #10 Jolly Companion, #7 Star Figure, #3 Fortune Whiskey, #1 Vulcanus
Race 8: #7 Talents Ambition, #1 Bottomuptogether, #6 Sing Dragon, #4 Capital Delight
Race 9: #13 Allcash, #1 New Forest, #5 Another World, #4 Reliable Profit
Race 10: #2 Top Dragon, #1 Little Paradise, #13 Lucky Sam Gor, #10 Forza Toro

Sha Tin Analysis

Race 1: ASHLEY HANDICAP

#7 Beauty Missile caught the eye on his first look at Class 5. From barrier 10, he was posted wide without cover the entire way, yet still closed well into fifth. With barrier 4 here, he finally gets the setup to convert. #3 Meepmeep slides back into Class 5, where his record holds up, and he is the only runner in the field with a win at this track and trip. Barrier 12 complicates his map, though, and they may have to ride him early for luck. #1 Courier Magic keeps knocking, placing in all three runs this campaign, including a narrow second at this course and distance two back. Zac Purton staying on gives him every hope to break through. #14 Foremost Teddy draws to advantage in barrier 3 and should map kindly. He’s been frustrating, not winning a race, but he has produced many encouraging efforts and remains in the mix.

Race 2: CAMERON HANDICAP

#6 Glory Cloud is ready to win now. This is his fourth run in Class 5, and his form has improved since dropping to the grade. He arrives off a short-head second, and that effort sets him up to go one better. #8 Cheer For South backs up quickly from Wednesday, where he wasn’t able to be ridden out, but he gets an upgrade returning to this track and trip. His run two back, a game second after working wide on the pace, is the effort to go on here, especially from a low draw. #5 Colourful Winner was one of the best on-pace performers in a fast-run 1400 meters at Sha Tin last week, and that stacks up well on the back-up here. #10 Double Bingo will likely be forced back from barrier 11, but his form is hard to fault, and Purton taking over appeals.

Race 3: CARNARVON HANDICAP

#7 Invictus Dragon effectively had a barrier trial in that void race last month, but he still moved well and looked to have returned in good order. This is only his fourth official start, and his first-up fifth to Oldtown, beaten under a length, was a big improvement. Barrier 4 sets him up to take another step. #1 Aurio also comes through that void race and was tested to the line, which was encouraging. It was his first start for Manfred Man and, importantly, he jumped cleanly after refusing to jump as a short-priced favorite last season. #5 Vigor Eye debuts for David Hayes and has produced several promising trials. From barrier 2, he should settle close to the speed and is capable of running a bold race. #2 Brownneedsfurther is building nicely, and his first-up third at Happy Valley reads well. A quiet trial since indicates he’s holding form well.

Race 4: KIMBERLEY HANDICAP

#13 Quick Contribution resumed with a fast-finishing second over 1200 meters and clearly returned in good order. Blinkers go on for the first time, he switches back to Sha Tin, and rising to 1400 meters looks perfect. He is set up to break through. #7 Incredible Moment can take advantage of a race that lacks genuine early speed. With the rail out in the C+3 position, front-runners should get every chance, and he maps to control things from the outset. #1 Jubilant Winner draws poorly in barrier 12, but his overall form makes him hard to dismiss. He posted back-to-back wins before his below-par latest run, has since trialed well, and is capable of bouncing back. #3 City Thunder is first-up after almost a year on the sidelines, but he has always shown ability, and the Purton booking first-up adds confidence.

Race 5: KIMBERLEY HANDICAP

#11 Better And Better turned in one of the runs of the race last start. From barrier 12, he was dragged back early, forced to chase against the shape, yet still surged late to finish under two lengths from the winner. Barrier 4 gives him a perfect platform now, and a good trial between runs suggests he is ready to strike. #3 Fit For Beauty will start short and with reason. He resumed for career start number three, was crunched late in betting, and won with authority. He looks like a horse with plenty more to give. #2 With A Smile finds far better conditions second-up. His first-up fifth at Happy Valley was decent, but Sha Tin’s 1400 meters is much more in his wheelhouse, and barrier 2 sets him up to run to his best. #12 Positive Smile cannot draw a gate to save himself, but continues to run well and is capable of sneaking into the finish at odds.

Race 6: MIDDLE HANDICAP

#5 We Are Hero backs up quickly from a strong fourth to Colourful King last week. That was a stiff Class 2, and this is a far easier assignment. The booking of James McDonald is a strong one, and he gets a serious winning chance here. #13 Sparkling Fellow is edging closer to a breakthrough. He charged late for a neck second to Alpha Strike first-up, then ran third to Crimson Flash, and that form line stacks up strongly for this. #7 Fast Responder continues to hold his form with two seconds from four runs this term, most recently finishing runner-up to Crimson Flash, which again looks the right reference. #2 Horsepower is erratic, and his manners cost him, but he dips back into Class 3 for the first time since winning five starts ago, and that alone is enough to keep him in the conversation if he races generously.

Race 7: AUSTIN HANDICAP

#10 Jolly Companion blew the start last time when he jumped awkwardly and lost ground, before launching late into fourth. It was a big run under the circumstances. He has since trialed well, gets a decent jockey upgrade with Maxime Guyon taking over, and a cleaner getaway puts him right in the mix. #7 Star Figure is also heading the right way. His fifth last start carried merit as he was forced to settle too far back through no fault of his own, yet still closed nicely. #3 Fortune Whiskey is a noted third-up improver with two wins from three, and he arrives off his best run yet on the all-weather when second to Vulcanus. #1 Vulcanus gets back to his preferred surface after a get-back, run-on sixth on turf. Barrier 4 gives him a suitable map to produce his best.

Race 8: CHATHAM HANDICAP

#7 Talents Ambition will be hoping for a race shape that suits his get-back, charge-late style. The 1200 meters is the query on paper, but his one attempt at this track and trip was excellent when third against some of these. The seven-day turnaround appeals, and he is worth consideration at a fair price. #1 Bottomuptogether will likely start favorite dropping in grade and returning to a track and trip where he is 1-from-1 after making all impressively. Barrier 11, however, is awkward, and he may be forced to burn petrol early to get across. #6 Sing Dragon was only fair on turf last start, which was expected, and should bounce back returning to his preferred track and trip, where he has four wins from eight. #4 Capital Delight is a noted fresh performer with three wins from nine first-up, and his pattern of settling back and sweeping late fits.

Race 9: MODY HANDICAP

#13 Allcash caused a boilover first-up, but it was less of a shock when you factor in his earlier run this season that came with vet excuses. He now returns to Class 3 which is the query, yet he looks a more furnished horse, and the switch back to the all-weather is a plus. #1 New Forest will attempt to control things from the front again after his all-the-way win from barrier 13. Barrier 3 hands Lyle Hewitson far more flexibility in the early stages. #5 Another World is untested on the all-weather under race conditions, but his second-up run was full of merit considering the work he did, and barrier 1 offers him a far kinder map. #4 Reliable Profit finally draws low after two wide barriers, and his form this season, a win and two thirds from three starts, makes him hard to ignore.

Race 10: SALISBURY HANDICAP

#2 Top Dragon is a horse going places. He lifted his record to three from nine with a smart second-up win, has trialed well since, and another victory here would push his rating into Classic Mile territory. #1 Little Paradise carries a similar upward profile as a four-year-old on the rise. He was aiming to go 2-from-2 last start, but struck a slowly-run race that didn’t suit. On paper, it does read as Purton choosing to stick with him over Top Dragon, which adds plenty of intrigue. #13 Lucky Sam Gor also comes through that slowly-run race where he was exceptional late into sixth from well back, completely undone by the tempo. Barrier 14 likely forces them to ride for luck, which may be telling late. #10 Forza Toro draws for a far better run than he did from out wide last start and can turn in a better showing.