Hong Kong: Selections for Sha Tin night of Feb. 7

Luke Middlebrook provides selections and analysis of the Sha Tin card, highlighted by the Centenary Vase H. (G3). First post is 11:30 p.m. ET Saturday night.

Sha Tin selections

Race 1: #4 Good Prospect, #9 Manythanks Forever, #7 Majestic Delight, #1 Gale Saga
Race 2: #11 Glory Cloud, #3 Mr Cool, #2 Flowing Riches, #12 King Dance
Race 3: #5 Lucky Ranger, #1 Top Time, #10 Absolute Honour, #3 Aerovolanic
Race 4: #12 Juicy Dragon, #1 One Man Show, #3 Speedy Smartie, #9 Monta Frutta
Race 5: #4 Strathpeffer, #2 Rezeki, #11 Star Figure, #5 All Round Winner
Race 6: #2 Conrad Patch, #4 Malpensa, #7 Island Buddy, #9 Invictus Dragon
Race 7: #2 Loyal Bright, #9 Galactic Voyage, #1 Celestial Hero, #8 Chill Buddy
Race 8: #7 Numbers, #4 Encountered, #3 Chancheng Glory, #5 Speed Dragon
Race 9: #5 Aurora Patch, #3 Victory Sky, #2 Magnifique, #4 Blazing Wind
Race 10: #14 The Absolute, #4 Emblazon, #2 Ka Ying Attack, #1 Juneau Pride
Race 11: #5 Aerodynamics, #4 Dazzling Fit, #13 Flow Water Flow, #7 Money Catcher

Race analysis

Race 1: FU TAI HANDICAP

#4 Good Prospect had a clear excuse last time when his tongue went over the bit. A tongue-tie goes on for the first time, and his earlier form had been trending the right way since the switch to Brett Crawford’s stable. He is worth another look in this typically open Class 5. #9 Manythanks Forever won impressively from barrier 12 last start, and barrier 1 this time sets him up far better to be competitive again. #7 Majestic Delight finally draws inside after doing it tough from wide gates in his last two runs, and he can improve on that switch alone. #1 Gale Saga charged home from near last into second from barrier 11 last time. Barrier 4 should allow him to settle closer, and that can sharpen his winning chance as Pierre Ng runners start to hit form.

Race 2: LUNG YAT HANDICAP

#11 Glory Cloud hit the line well into sixth from barrier 12 last time, but barrier 1 gives his map an upgrade, much like three runs ago when he broke through. That win came in Class 5, but this Class 4 does not look beyond him. #3 Mr Cool brings back-to-back thirds into this, and there was merit in the latest after covering ground. Barrier 2 should allow for a better trip today. #2 Flowing Riches found something again at his first try on the all-weather, running third to Speedy Smartie, and he may have found a surface he enjoys. Barrier 11 is the drawback, and he will need things to fall into place early. #12 King Dance is on the cusp of sliding into Class 5, but blinkers first time last start sparked improvement, and he ran on into sixth against the race shape.

Race 3: ON TING HANDICAP

#5 Lucky Ranger is a progressive three-year-old, but he had it all to do on debut from barrier 12. He was only fair away, settled near last, and could not match Majestic Valour up front, yet he still closed strongly to get within a length and three-quarters on the line. Barrier 14 is another tough draw, but the rise to 1400 meters at least gives him more time to slot in. #1 Top Time is worth another chance after a luckless sixth last start when badly held up and never getting a clear crack at them. #10 Absolute Honour is running well without winning, bringing back-to-back placings into this, and barrier 4 puts him in the right spot. #3 Aerovolanic was unsuited over the mile last time, and the drop back in trip reads as a positive after he placed third two runs ago.

Race 4: LUNG YAT HANDICAP

#12 Juicy Dragon gets another look after he had a horror run when seventh to Speedy Smartie. He was hampered mid-race, forced three-wide after that, then copped interference in the straight. #1 One Man Show took to the all-weather first time under these race conditions when a close second to Bright Mortar, and he has trialed well since. He is improving and looks ready to win. #3 Speedy Smartie is absolutely thriving since joining Crawford, winning by a margin last time for his third win from seven this season. He sets the standard again. #9 Monta Frutta had no hope from barrier 11 last time, trapped wide throughout. His flashing second from a kinder draw prior is the run to lean on here, and barrier 1 gives him a similar opportunity.

Race 5: ON TING HANDICAP

#4 Strathpeffer can roll forward in a race that does not show much speed on paper. He returned with a solid second to Robot Star after rolling forward from barrier 10, and he can again take up a handy spot, even from barrier 11. #2 Rezeki made full use of barrier 1 last time when mapping close and winning, and he draws barrier 1 again. The setup is similar, and he is clearly hitting his straps. #11 Star Figure is an improving type, and he can be better than a closing eighth from a wide draw on the all-weather. This track and trip suit the profile. #5 All Round Winner comes in off an impressive trial, and he has had little go his way in recent runs. Now well into Class 4, he’s ready to make his mark when the breaks come.

Race 6: THE YAN OI TONG CUP (HANDICAP)

#2 Conrad Patch turned his trial promise into an encouraging debut second to Hot Delight, who looks a talent on the rise. Natural improvement second-up is the expectation for him to go one better. #4 Malpensa took a clear step forward second-up after a forgettable debut. He was slow away from barrier 10, settled last, then finished strongly into fourth behind Hot Delight. #7 Island Buddy justified a big betting move first-up for the Crawford stable by leading all the way. Similar tactics can see him give another sight. #9 Invictus Dragon is trending the right way, and he has not had much luck in recent runs. His third to Lucky Eight last time was a step in the right direction, and barrier 4 sets him up to land just off the speed.

Race 7: TAI HING HANDICAP

#2 Loyal Bright is a horse on the up after landing his first Hong Kong win impressively, leading all the way. He does not have to make the running again, but his early speed should still see him land in a good spot. #9 Galactic Voyage is trending the right way, and he ran on well for third behind Loyal Bright last time after jumping from barrier 11. #1 Celestial Hero was unlucky not to finish closer last start when third, and it was his best run of the campaign. He looks to be building towards his next win if the breaks come at the right time. #8 Chill Buddy surprised by rolling forward from barrier 12 last time, and he did well to stick on for second. That was a solid effort, and he also looks to be going the right way.

Race 8: THE CENTENARY VASE (HANDICAP) (G3)

#7 Numbers is a serious Hong Kong Derby contender after an impressive second-up win in the city over 2000 meters. The form around him has continued to stack up, and on the lightweight, he can be hard to run down. #4 Encountered tends to improve second-up, and this track and trip suits. He stuck on for fourth first-up in the January Cup (G3) after a fast-run race, and it was a better run than the bare result reads. #3 Chancheng Glory is chasing back-to-back wins in this race after taking it out last year, but he has not won since then. Zac Purton takes the ride for the second time, and it is a timely booking. #5 Speed Dragon comes off a strong win in the January Cup. He now switches to Sha Tin, where his record is not as strong, but it’s hard to dismiss him on form.

Race 9: WU KING HANDICAP

#5 Aurora Patch switches back to the all-weather after running second to Victory Sky from barrier 11 three runs ago. The map looks far kinder this time from barrier 3, where he can turn the tables. #3 Victory Sky has found career-best form, winning back-to-back races to go 2-for-2 at the course and trip, and he shapes as the one to beat. #2 Magnifique resumed with a bang first-up off a bleed, scoring comfortably down the straight to take his record to four wins from five. This is his first run on the all-weather, but he has trialed well on the surface between runs. Barrier 12 is the obvious query. #4 Blazing Wind finally broke through last time under Purton, but Purton rides Victory Sky here. Barrier 1 and Ellis Wong’s claim still set him up for a good run.

Race 10: YAN TIN HANDICAP

#14 The Absolute is the throw at the stumps. He resumes from a lengthy break, and his vet record is a concern, but he has some good runs on the board that stand him in good stead. He will be overlooked, and he is the knockout chance at odds. #4 Emblazon is thriving and sets the bar high. He goes for a hat trick after stepping up to Class 3 last time and making it three wins from four starts, and he remains the one to beat. #2 Ka Ying Attack did not see out the mile last time, but his run prior over 1400 meters was solid, and the drop back in trip brings him back into play. He will give a sight from his low draw. #1 Juneau Pride comes into this off his best run of the season when third to Emblazon, and he can continue to build on that.

Race 11: YAU OI HANDICAP

#5 Aerodynamics may be suited by the speed map, as there does not look to be much early pace. He sat handy over the mile second-up and was beaten a neck into second, and he is clearly trending the right way. #4 Dazzling Fit can also settle closer than he has in his last two runs over the mile. He needs to lift here to press his Classic Cup and Derby claims, and barrier 4 gives him the chance. #13 Flow Water Flow has taken an interesting path into this after two runs over 1200 meters, then 1400 meters, then stepping to the mile fourth-up and winning well. He rises in class on a lightweight and is a horse with more to come. #7 Money Catcher is thriving this campaign, posting a win and three thirds from seven starts, and he is hard to knock.