International spotlight: 2025 Epsom Derby

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Running through Aug. 31, you can opt in, bet a horse to win in selected British races, and get up to $10 back if your selection finishes second (in a field of at least five runners). Complete details are available on the TwinSpires offer page.

Race 5, 10:30 a.m. ET – Epsom Derby (G1)

After longtime antepost Derby (G1) favorite #17 The Lion in Winter (6-1) met with a setback that roiled his spring plans, his Aidan O’Brien stablemate #3 Delacroix (5-2) took over as the market leader. 

Yet there’s still some fluctuation near the top, signifying that there’s not overweening confidence in Delacroix. Godolphin’s 2000 Guineas (G1) star #13 Ruling Court (3-1) was briefly a market mover until he started to drift. Now, Ralph Beckett’s Dante (G2) upsetter #11 Pride of Arras (5-1) is gaining steam.

Let’s examine their credentials and the re-opposing rivals who could improve at Epsom.

Delacroix form boosts longshots Stanhope Gardens, Tennessee Stud 

Delacroix, a son of Dubawi and Hall of Famer Tepin, was always the type to progress from two to three. Thus, it’s very encouraging that he was a top-class juvenile. Edging #15 Stanhope Gardens (12-1) in the Autumn (G3) at Newmarket, he missed by a nose in the Futurity Trophy (G1) at Doncaster. 

Stanhope Gardens boasts an even stronger pedigree for success over the classic distance, making him an attractive price play in his rematch with Delacroix here. From the first crop of the world-class Dubawi stallion Ghaiyyath, he is out of a half-sister to Romsdal, who placed in both the Derby and St Leger (G1) in 2014.

Indeed, before Pride of Arras burst onto the scene at York, Stanhope Gardens was Beckett’s Derby hope. The rub is that Stanhope Gardens, like The Lion in Winter, was also playing catch-up to make Epsom. A tweaked muscle in April cost him valuable training time. He just made it to an ad hoc conditions race at Salisbury May 24, where he stretched clear nicely in what might as well have been a paid workout.

If that one-mile tightener can bring him on enough, Stanhope Gardens has a right to get involved. Note that owner Marc Chan is flying in from Hong Kong. 

Delacroix has taken the forecast step forward himself this season, showing fine tactical speed before drawing off in the 1 1/4-mile Ballysax (G3) and Derby Trial (G3) at Leopardstown. The caveat is that the Leopardstown Derby Trial has not yielded a Derby winner since High Chaparral (2002). Neither has the Ballysax been productive in the past two decades, with the exception of Harzand (2016). 

On the other hand, Delacroix’s Ballysax form has stood up in ensuing preps. Stablemate #5 Lambourn (8-1), second in the Ballysax, thrived on the stretch-out in the Chester Vase (G3). Similarly, Ballysax fourth Puppet Master came back to capture the Lingfield Derby Trial. 

Ballysax fifth-placer, the filly Wemightakedlongway, moved forward to win the Salsabil S., and she just finished fourth in Friday’s Oaks (G1). That pattern might be a good clue for fellow Joseph O’Brien trainee #16 Tennessee Stud (30-1), who was third to Delacroix in his May 11 reappearance in Leopardstown’s Derby Trial. Tennessee Stud also has an indirect form tie-in with Delacroix from his juvenile campaign, when he was runner-up to Hotazhell in the Beresford (G2). In his next start, Hotazhell outdueled Delacroix in the Futurity Trophy.

By Wootton Bassett and out of a Sadler’s Wells half-sister to the great miler Rock of Gibraltar, Tennessee Stud scored his signature win in the about 1 1/4-mile Criterium de Saint-Cloud (G1) last fall on heavy ground. He’d appreciate a greater test of stamina, and rain in the forecast. 

Can Ruling Court add his name to the Guineas-Derby honor roll?

Ruling Court’s price has floated upward, probably because trainer Charlie Appleby was concerned about potentially soft ground. But I was a bit hesitant to embrace him, mainly because of the historical stature of horses who’ve turned the Guineas-Derby double.

His stablemate, 1000 Guineas (G1) heroine Desert Flower, discovered the difficulty of trying to complete the fillies’ classic double in the Oaks. She wound up third as the favorite behind the Ballydoyle pair of Minnie Hauk and Whirl.

Ruling Court is trying to emulate the likes of Camelot (2012) and Sea the Stars (2009), the only two to win the Guineas and Derby since the turn of the millennium. You have to rewind to 1989 to find the latest before them, Nashwan. 

Is Ruling Court up to their level? The $2.4 million Arqana sale topper looked like a superstar on debut at Sandown, but in his only other outing at two, he was third to The Lion in Winter in the Acomb (G3). Ruling Court returned triumphant as the class of the field this winter at Meydan. Up to Group 1 company for the first time in the Guineas, he arguably capitalized on favorite Field of Gold’s tactical miscue. But Ruling Court did show a serious set of gears to prevail.

The Guineas form is working out. Field of Gold bolted up in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1), and fifth-placer Wimbledon Hawkeye placed third to Pride of Arras in the Dante. The sixth Green Impact (who beat Delacroix twice at two) came back to score in the Glencairn.

From a pedigree perspective, Ruling Court offers mixed clues. His sire, Triple Crown champion Justify, was responsible for last year’s Epsom Derby conqueror, City of Troy. Ruling Court’s broodmare sire is the aforementioned High Chaparral. Yet his dam, Grade 3-placed Inchargeofme, and her full brother, Group 1-placed Johann Strauss, were more miler types. There is other stamina in the family, but I’m not sure it’s persuasive enough to see him improving at 1 1/2 miles.

Godolphin’s second string, #18 Tornado Alert (20-1), is the only other Guineas alum advancing to Epsom. The Saeed bin Suroor pupil finished fourth at Newmarket after setting the pace. Although he’s capable of improving off that first turf attempt in his sophomore bow, that angle didn’t pan out for bin Suroor’s Elwateen in the Oaks.

Can The Lion in Winter reverse Dante form with Pride of Arras?

O’Brien has won a record 10 editions of the Epsom Derby, including the past two years with longtime favorites who were rebounding from prep losses. Compared to Auguste Rodin (2023) and City of Troy, both spectacular flops in the Guineas, The Lion in Winter’s sixth in the Dante is very respectable. 

By the all-time great Sea the Stars, The Lion in Winter actually comes from the same family as Ruling Court. But his dam, What a Home, was Group 3-placed over 1 1/2 miles, and her half-sister, multiple Group 3 scorer Venus de Milo, missed narrowly in the 2013 Irish Oaks (G1). 

With a pedigree like that, The Lion in Winter could never have been expected to go 2-for-2 as a summer juvenile. The fact that he won on debut at the Curragh and showed surprising speed to win the Acomb in juvenile course-record time is a giant pointer to his ability.

The concern is that The Lion in Winter was sidelined later last season, and his classic timetable was thrown off again this term. There’s no doubt that he’ll improve a ton off the Dante, where he pulled fiercely in the early going and flattened late. But will it be enough, or will we see him to best effect next time? Being marooned in the far outside post 19 is another obstacle to overcome.

The reshuffled pecking order at Ballydoyle is reflected in the riding assignments at Epsom. Ryan Moore sticks with Delacroix, Wayne Lordan inherits Lambourn, and Colin Keane picks up the mount on The Lion in Winter. 

Pride of Arras and the other Dante alumni

Pride of Arras was overlooked at 18-1 in the Dante, since he had not been sighted since his impressive Sandown debut last summer. But he belied his inexperience and showed poise to work out an advantageous trip in this usually informative trial. Parked within range of a sedate pace, he knifed through foes to deliver the coup de grace. 

Not only did Pride of Arras win the Dante in the manner of a Derby winner, but he has every right to stay at Epsom. The New Bay colt hails from the terrific family of Brian Boru and 2010 Derby record-setter Workforce.

Dante runner-up #2 Damysus (12-1) could be a bit sneaky for John and Thady Gosden. The final sectionals reveal that the Frankel colt closed smartly in a race shape that didn’t favor him. Previously third in the Sandown Classic Trial (G3), Damysus is on the upswing. Stablemate #10 Nightwalker (20-1), fifth in the Dante, adds cheekpieces. That might help the Juddmonte homebred, although his distant third in the Autumn puts him some way behind Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens.

#19 Tuscan Hills (60-1), seventh in the Dante, has to step up dramatically to live up to his pedigree as the descendant of Oaks winners Eswarah (2005) and Midway Lady (1986). Dante eighth #14 Sea Scout’s (60-1) best talking point is that he won the Blue Riband Trial here, making him the only entrant with course form. 

Can the supplemented Midak win in memory of the Aga Khan?

Unbeaten French colt #7 Midak (12-1), sporting the colors of the Aga Khan Studs, would be a poignant winner of this Derby that is being run in memory of his late owner/breeder. Adding to the sentimental rooting interest, Midak is out of a mare by one of the late Aga Khan’s great Derby winners, Sinndar (2000). 

Yet it’s difficult to extrapolate the merit of his Prix Greffulhe (G3) form. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard must be respected, and the decision to supplement him could be taken as a vote of confidence. Still, in the circumstances, this venture strikes me as more of a familial tribute. 

The other French hope, #8 New Ground (30-1), was also supplemented. Trained by Henri-Francois Devin, the Juddmonte homebred placed third in a pair of classic trials at home. The more noteworthy was the Prix la Force (G3) won by Cualificar, the eventual runner-up in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (G1).

Good luck at Epsom, and be sure to leverage your strongest opinions in the Derby-Belmont double wager!