International spotlight: 2025 Japan Cup

One of the main storylines around the Japan Cup (G1) (post time 1:40 a.m. ET late Saturday night) centers upon #8 Calandagan (11-2).

Although he enters as the world’s highest-rated horse, and the newly-minted Cartier Horse of the Year in Europe, the French shipper must defy a 20-year trend against international runners in this prize. Just last year, his stablemate Goliath sported top claims, yet proved unable to break the locals’ grip and checked in sixth at Tokyo.

But Calandagan is a different animal from Goliath, as their trainer, Francis-Henri Graffard, attests. The Aga Khan homebred isn’t mercurial like Goliath, and his body of work is accordingly far more consistent. Never out of the exacta since he was gelded as a juvenile, Calandagan brings a three-race winning streak at the highest level. And the conditions will suit him, since the firm ground is exactly what he relishes to deploy his turn of foot.

Graffard has sounded a note of confidence in Calandagan’s chances, even as he renews rivalry with #14 Danon Decile (5-1), the horse who upstaged him in the April 5 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) (more on him below). Danon Decile got the jump on Calandagan at Meydan, and that might well be the only way for someone to beat him here. Graffard counters that Calandagan is a stronger operator now than he was earlier in the year. One might add that jockey Mickael Barzalona has come to know Calandagan better as well, and their confidence in each other has appeared to be mutually reinforcing.

Aside from Calandagan’s own intrinsic properties, the other part of the equation involves the state of the Japanese opposition. The home team has plenty of depth, if not an obvious standout, and the leading contenders must defy historical headwinds of their own.

The best of them might be sophomores #2 Croix du Nord (6-1) and #15 Masquerade Ball (2-1), the one-two finishers in the June 1 Japanese Derby (G1) over this course and about 1 1/2-mile trip. But three-year-old colts have found this a tough spot; in the past 20 years, Rose Kingdom (2010) was the only one to win, and that came with an asterisk via the disqualification of the much-the-best Buena Vista. You have to go back to the great Jungle Pocket (2001) to find a reigning Japanese Derby winner who beat elders in the Japan Cup that fall. 

Moreover, Croix du Nord was last seen retreating to 14th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), where the far outside post proved his undoing. Two back in the Prix du Prince d’Orange (G3), Croix du Nord actually defeated the future Arc winner, Daryz. From post 2 in the Japan Cup, he has every right to rebound. 

The caveat is that Croix du Nord has just begun to revive from his French venture, and I half-expected him to await the Dec. 28 Arima Kinen (G1) to give him more time. There’s precedent to bounce back from Paris and run well in the Japan Cup, but you might have to be on the order of the immortal Deep Impact (2006) to win. And he was a four-year-old at the time. 

Masquerade Ball just beat older horses in the key stepping stone, the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1). Four of the last five Japan Cup winners, and six in the past decade, prepped in that spot.

But according to en.netkeiba.com, Masquerade Ball is trying to become the first three-year-old to turn the Tenno Sho/Japan Cup double. Also, he was suited by both the race shape and the cutback to about 1 1/4 miles that day. Stretching back out to a potentially more demanding scenario must be a question mark, especially at the price. I’d regard him as a vulnerable favorite (if the morning line holds up).

The value play might be #18 Tastiera (16-1), although his wide post position puts a damper on the degree of enthusiasm. The 2023 Japanese Derby champion fits the profile having prepped in the Tenno Sho, where he made a bold early move before tiring to eighth. Trainer Noriyuki Hori was critical of the ride, and jockey Damian Lane figures to make amends this time. 

Note that Tastiera was runner-up in last year’s Tenno Sho Autumn to Do Deuce, who went on to win the Japan Cup. Tastiera has even older form tying into last year’s running. During his sophomore campaign, he was second in the 2023 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) (G1) to #17 Durezza (99-1). In the 2024 Japan Cup, Durezza would dead-heat for second with #16 Shin Emperor (20-1). 

Last year’s placegetters are logical players again, if they’re able to reproduce the same level of form. Shin Emperor, a stablemate of Forever Young’s from the Yoshito Yahagi yard, is trying to regain his peak after a respiratory infection curtailed his European campaign. Durezza, third to Danon Decile and Calandagan in the Sheema Classic, is in a similar phase of getting back to his best physically.

Danon Decile has a stronger case to return to his maximum. A Japanese Derby winner like both Croix du Nord and Tastiera, the 2024 classic champion was last seen finishing fifth in the Juddmonte International (G1) at York. The bizarre pace scenario with a runaway rabbit did him no favors, on top of the fact that he was reportedly unnerved by the unfamiliar environment on raceday. Daryz was another to run below form in that race, making it all the easier to forgive Danon Decile. He will feel much more at home, both literally and in terms of the race flow, here. 

Another worth considering, at least as an “each-way” proposition, is #1 Justin Palace (10-1), who exits a third in the Tenno Sho Autumn. A Deep Impact half-brother to 2013 Belmont (G1) and 2014 Metropolitan H. (G1) hero Palace Malice, Justin Palace wasn’t beaten far when fifth in the 2024 Japan Cup. While he hasn’t won since the 2023 Tenno Sho Spring (G1), he twice placed to the sublime Equinox in majors that same season. Justin Palace is usually somewhere in the mix, and he projects a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. 

If you’re looking for a swing-for-the-fences type of longshot, #11 Admire Terra (33-1) offers some intrigue with Yuga Kawada aboard. From the extended family of Deep Impact and Regaleira, he is arguably better over further, but he has upside as a lightly-raced four-year-old. 

Last fall, Admire Terra was third in a strong edition of the Kikuka Sho, where Danon Decile was sixth. Admire Terra scored his signature win here in the June 1 Meguro Kinen (G2), and in his only ensuing start, he was a fitness-challenged fourth in the Oct. 5 Kyoto Daishoten (G2). 

It’s typically not as informative a prep as the Tenno Sho, but three Japan Cup winners in the past 10 years used the Kyoto race as their springboard. You could also interpret that as a positive for Kyoto Daishoten winner #4 Deep Monster (33-1), who’s in the form of his life since changing his bit; runner-up #5 Sunrise Earth (33-1), who nearly went wire-to-wire off the layoff; and eighth Durezza.