International spotlight: ‘Hell’ to pay for Irish 2000 Guineas favorite?

Race 5, 10:40 a.m. ET: Irish 2000 Guineas (G1)

Overturned as the favorite in the 2000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket, #4 Field of Gold (4-5) turns up at the Curragh for compensation in Saturday’s Irish 2000 Guineas (G1). Hopes are that he can emulate sire Kingman, who rebounded from his lone career loss in Newmarket’s Guineas with a romp in the Irish equivalent.

But Kingman had a far bigger class edge than Field of Gold, who’s trading at an even shorter price for the Irish classic than he did at Newmarket. Even allowing for the fact that Field of Gold didn’t get the best of rides last time out, and that he picks up Colin Keane here, he arguably doesn’t have as much in hand as the odds imply. Co-trainer John Gosden admits that this is something of an audible, and he’s drawn on the outside in post 9. 

Indeed, money is coming in for another Juddmonte entrant by Kingman, the undefeated #2 Cosmic Year (5-1). Although he sports a perfect 3-for-3 record, the Harry Charlton pupil has yet to try Group company, let alone a Group 1. Cosmic Year’s abundant promise would make him enticing, if not for his cramped odds.

As you’d expect, Aidan O’Brien is well represented by #3 Expanded (15-1) and #6 Officer (5-1). Expanded has the stronger form in the book as the near-misser in last fall’s Dewhurst (G1). Considering the fluctuations in Ballydoyle plans when he was pitched hurriedly into Newmarket’s Guineas, Expanded has every right to improve from his ninth in that reappearance. 

The rub is that go-to rider Ryan Moore is on stablemate Officer instead – hence the disparity in their prices. Officer is a progressive type who comes off a course-and-distance score in the Tetrarch S., but like Cosmic Year, this is his baptism by fire at the top level.

Just as Expanded strikes me as overpriced, so do two others with outstanding juvenile form from last season.

#5 Hotazhell (8-1), hero of the Beresford (G2) over this track and trip, was last seen edging Ballydoyle’s high-class Delacroix in the Oct. 26 Futurity Trophy (G1) at Doncaster. By the terrific young sire Too Darn Hot, who was upset in the 2019 Irish Guineas, Hotazhell was an 11th-hour scratch from his intended comeback in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1) (French 2000 Guineas) (G1) due to the ground. Trainer Jessica Harrington believed that Longchamp was riding too firm for Hotazhell, but she’s reportedly delighted with the surface at the Curragh.

The best “each-way” value could be #7 Rashabar (15-1), who’s never been out of the trifecta in six career starts. Since breaking his maiden as an 80-1 shot in the Coventry (G2) at Royal Ascot, the Brian Meehan trainee has backed it up with strong runner-up efforts in the Prix Morny (G1) and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1), where Field of Gold was fourth. 

Like Hotazhell, Rashabar was an absentee from the French Guineas, in his case because of a fever. But Rashabar has the advantage of a prep in the April 12 Greenham (G3), where he was runner-up to Jonquil. That form worked out well when Jonquil came back to miss narrowly to Ballydoyle’s Henri Matisse in the French Guineas. 

As that summary indicates, the Irish Guineas is a deeper race than the market suggests. And there are still more possibilities. Joseph O’Brien’s #8 Scorthy Champ (15-1), seventh in his comeback in Newmarket’s Guineas, previously toppled a wayward Henri Matisse in last September’s Vincent O’Brien National (G1). Brother Donnacha O’Brien has the biggest longshot in the field, #1 Comanche Brave (50-1), who came within a half-length of surprising Henri Matisse in the March 30 Red Rocks (G3) at Leopardstown in his latest.

Adding to the intrigue is Juddmonte third-stringer #9 Windlord (20-1) from the hot yard of Andrew Balding. Third to Hotazhell in the Beresford, he cuts back to a mile after a third in the Sandown Classic Trial (G3).