King George VI & Queen Elizabeth: Japan’s Masquerade Ball gets Calandagan rematch

Saturday’s King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) shapes up as a vintage renewal at Ascot. Defending champion Calandagan will renew rivalry with Masquerade Ball, the Japanese colt who almost beat him in Tokyo; Aidan O’Brien’s latest Irish Derby (G1) hero, Benvenuto Cellini, looks to step up versus elders in a clash of generations; Ballydoyle stablemate Minnie Hauk and Juddmonte’s Kalpana aim to play femme fatale; and the 2024 winner, Goliath, tries to regain his crown.

While the all-star cast makes the King George (race 5, 10:35 a.m. ET) unmissable in itself, there’s another reason to tune in. A Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) berth is also on the line, and the leading Ballydoyle contenders already have an eye on Keeneland.

Masquerade Ball has credentials to score historic victory for Japan

Considering that Masquerade Ball came within a head of denying Calandagan in last fall’s Japan Cup (G1), as a still-developing three-year-old, it’s tempting to forecast that his natural progression at four can help him turn the tables. 

Watch how Masquerade Ball moves in tandem with Calandagan, just to his inside, and forces him to pull out extra in the final yards. Moreover, the final time was a record 2:20.3 for this about 1 1/2-mile distance, which should answer any stamina question.

But the appeal of Masquerade Ball goes beyond his prior match-up with Calandagan. The Takahisa Tezuka trainee had the raw ability to place in the first two jewels of the Japanese Triple Crown while looking like he’d yet to reach his peak. He reinforced that view when improving later in the season to win the prestigious Tenno Sho Autumn (G1), firing off his final 600 meters in :32.3. 

Dare I say that profile eerily echoes past Japanese phenom Equinox, who likewise was a work in progress during the spring classics, but won the Tenno Sho Autumn en route to becoming a world-beating machine? Unlike Equinox, Masquerade Ball advanced from the Tenno Sho to the Japan Cup. He was expected to follow the Equinox itinerary to the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), until the war broke out, and then a setback forced another change of plan.

Masquerade Ball finally returned in an awfully tough spot, taking on Hong Kong legend Romantic Warrior in his lion’s den at Sha Tin, in the April 26 QEII Cup (G1). Again demonstrating his upward curve, Masquerade Ball rattled home with a field-best final 400 meters in :21.67 to come up a length shy of catching Romantic Warrior. 

The key point is that the race shape favored Romantic Warrior’s bid to win his fourth trophy in the QEII Cup, while it worked against Masquerade Ball, who had to rally from last off a dawdling pace in the about 1 1/4-mile affair. With better early placement, or a genuine tempo, it’s arguable that Masquerade Ball might have gone close to dethroning Romantic Warrior. Indeed, if the first half of his campaign had gone according to plan, he might well have brought an even glitzier resume into Ascot. 

Interestingly, jockey Christophe Lemaire has said that Masquerade Ball has the potential to become one of the greats of Japanese racing. Of his six compatriots who have tried the King George, Heart’s Cry came closest when third to Hurricane Run and Electrocutionist in the 2006 thriller. 

Lemaire rode Heart’s Cry for the same owner – Teruya Yoshida’s Shadai operation – which also has Wurttemberg in the King George. While Wurttemberg is here on merit, as the near-misser to the top-class Croix du Nord in the Tenno Sho Spring (G1), his main role is as traveling companion for Masquerade Ball. Yoshida recently told Thoroughbred Daily News that he regrets not sending a companion along with Heart’s Cry, who might have won if he hadn’t been lonely in England. 

If Masquerade Ball can cope with the undulations at Ascot, he’d be worth backing at anywhere near his 4-1 morning line. 

Calandagan, Goliath, Graffard could join an exclusive club

Of course, Calandagan remains the one to beat, especially after his sparkling rebound in the July 5 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1). The world’s top-rated horse of 2025 deserved a mulligan for his no-show in the Coronation Cup (G1) in miserable conditions at Epsom, but it was reassuring to see that he retains his enthusiasm for the game. 

Calandagan has reportedly moved forward since Saint-Cloud, but he’ll need to if he wants to score an historic repeat over a deeper field. Aside from the rare ability to sustain his acceleration, the Aga Khan Studs homebred has an affinity for Ascot. He sports a 3-for-4 local mark, including a spectacular display in the 2024 King Edward VII (G2) at this distance and last fall’s Champion (G1) over the outstanding Ombudsman. Course proficiency could be the trump card in his rematch with Masquerade Ball, who had the home court advantage at Tokyo.

If Calandagan successfully defends his King George title, he’d join an exclusive club including the great Dahlia (1973-74), Swain (1997-98), and Enable (2017, 2019-2020). If stablemate Goliath can recapture the glory, he’d emulate Enable as the only winners in non-consecutive years. 

Their trainer, Francis-Henri Graffard, would become the first since Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor to win three King Georges in a row. After Swain’s double, Daylami added to the yard’s ledger in 1999. The precedent was set by the late Sir Noel Murless, who sent out Aunt Edith (1966), Busted (1967), and Royal Palace (1968).

Although Goliath’s swashbuckling upset in 2024 remains a bit of an outlier on his record, he is capable of a giant run in his optimal conditions. The German-bred gelding should get the right set-up with a brutal pace on firm ground, if he’s still able to take advantage of it.

Benvenuto Cellini aims to emulate paternal grandsire Galileo

Galileo, the first of O’Brien’s King George winners, is his only one to strike as a three-year-old. Since Galileo’s epic conquest in 2001, O’Brien has won three times with older stars – Dylan Thomas (2007), Duke of Marmalade (2008), and Highland Reel (2016). 

Benvenuto Cellini, by Frankel and thus a grandson of Galileo, will try to land a blow for the current classic crop. The flashy chestnut was mired in Epsom’s bog in the Derby (G1), even before he was controversially declared a non-starter, but he set the record straight in the Irish Derby. 

The question is whether his classic form can stand up to world-class older horses. Indeed, Galileo brought greater cachet into his King George as a dual Derby star. At this writing, Benvenuto Cellini must do more to overtake Ballydoyle’s top-rated colt, Constitution River, who followed up his French classic double by drubbing elders in the Eclipse (G1).

On the plus side, Benvenuto Cellini has looked exceptional on quick ground, and Ryan Moore sticks with him over Minnie Hauk. Chances are we’ve yet to see the best of this talented three-year-old, who could capitalize on an 11-pound weight concession from the older males. 

Kalpana, Minnie Hauk carry on distaff legacy

Kalpana, runner-up to Calandagan here a year ago, is the latest advertisement for how well females have done in this race. Like Calandagan, Kalpana is an Ascot aficionado, having captured the past two editions of the British Champions Fillies & Mares (G1). Trainer Andrew Balding reports that the five-year-old mare is in even better condition than she was last summer. The one caveat is ground with “firm” in the description. Kalpana acts on quick going, but she’s lethal with a bit of give in the ground, which she probably won’t get on Saturday. She was just edged in the course-and-distance Hardwicke (G2) in these conditions, and to go one better, she’d probably need a slightly easier surface. 

Minnie Hauk has yet to equal her stellar sophomore season that culminated in her near-miss in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), but it’s tough to discount such a high-class operator from Ballydoyle. The Frankel filly was most recently an honorable runner-up to Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’s (G1) at Royal Ascot, gaining revenge on Arc winner Daryz. The step back up in distance to her 1 1/2-mile wheelhouse plays to her strengths. 

Action, Lambourn loom in Ballydoyle tactics

Action, once a promising juvenile, has been relegated to pacemaker duties in both the Epsom and Irish Derbies. He’s sure to be sacrificed again for his more accomplished stablemates in the King George.

His older half-brother Lambourn, the dual Derby winner of 2025, devolved into the front runner’s job in the Hardwicke and flamed out. Last time out at Saint-Cloud, he tried to set the pace for himself and faded to fifth behind Calandagan. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s part of the Ballydoyle pace relay here. Yet Lambourn takes the cheekpieces off now, implying that he might not want to overplay his hand early, and William Buick picks up the spare ride.