Melbourne Cup 2026: Preview and wagering strategy

It’s a little unfair to call the Melbourne Cup (G1) a lottery, but it is certainly a challenging race to predict. A distance unfamiliar to some punters, handicap conditions, and a large field means it’s not always an easy task. 

The average price of the winners since 2007 is 22.4-1. That includes a 100-1 winner in the form of Prince of Penzance in 2016 and the 90-1 shot Knight’s Choice in 2023, but even if you take them out, the average is still 13.85-1.

It means that when assessing the race, you need to cast the net fairly wide. But it also means that if you do get it right, you’ll likely revel in a very nice payout.

Flemington, Race 7, 11 p.m. ET Monday: Melbourne Cup (G1), 3,200 meters (about 2 miles), $7.17 million, three-year-olds and up

• $10 win/$20 show: #20 Point of Law ($30)
• $6 win/$12 show: #24 Shockletz ($30)
• 50-cent trifecta: 18, 20, 24 with 18, 20, 24 with 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 16, 18, 20, 24 ($21)

This year’s Cup is dominated by two trainers. Ciaron Maher, who is Chris Waller’s main rival in Australia these days, has seven runners, while Irish horseman Joseph O’Brien has five – and that’s after O’Brien’s long-time cup favorite Defiantly was ruled out by vets.

Their dominance is also reflected in the market: of the nine horses at 20-1 or less in local markets on Sunday local time, seven were with this pair.

Maher, who won the race with Gold Trip in 2022, leads with #20 Point of Law (12-1). Bred by King Charles III and previously trained by John and Thady Gosden, Point of Law raced in the royal colors when fourth in the Queen’s Vase (G2) at Royal Ascot before winning the Bahrain Trophy (G3) at Newmarket. Bought for the Melbourne Cup, he created a positive impression when winning the Geelong Cup (G3) Oct. 21, beating two O’Brien runners that missed out on this race.

O’Brien did gain confidence from Point of Law’s victory. Listed in local Melbourne Cup books as a four-year-old but still three by Northern Hemisphere time, O’Brien regarded him as inferior to his charge #18 James J Braddock (43-1), who was third in the Epsom Derby (G1). He failed in the Irish Derby (G1) behind Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Benvenuto Cellini and was then sixth in the Kilternan (G3); if he reproduces his Epsom form, he’s a chance.

O’Brien’s leading market hope (notwithstanding the odds in the North American PPs) is #2 Trustyourinstinct (34-1). After winning the Curragh Cup (G2), he was fourth behind Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger (G1). That’s very good form for this, though he is near the top of the weights with 126 pounds, one pound below fellow O’Brien charge #1 Sons And Lovers (34-1).

Most of Maher’s team are European imports. But he does have one horse that he’s trained from day one that’s well supported, the New Zealand-bred #24 Shockletz (11-1). By 2009 Cup winner Shocking and raced in the same colors, she earned her ticket by winning the Archer (G2) in September, and proved her fitness with a second-place finish over 1 1/4 miles Oct. 24. She carries just 112 pounds, though her Cup path was complicated when her regular rider Harry Coffey injured his collarbone in a fall on Saturday. He’s in a race to be healthy for this race.

Other Maher candidates worth watching are #11 Juja Kibo (11-1), winner of his last two; last year’s third placegetter #4 Middle Earth (68-1), whose form is better than it looks given he’s been running in unsuitable top 1 1/4-mile races like the Cox Plate (G1), to ensure he doesn’t get a re-handicap; and #22 Mr Monaco (34-1), winner of the Bart Cummings (G3) Oct. 3 and who was a very solid third to Juja Kibo last time out.

The two best-supported runners outside these stables are #12 Hopewell Rock (9-1), prepared by Bow Echo’s trainer George Boughey in England, and the Australian-bred #16 So You Are (7-1), trained by Bjorn Baker in Sydney.

Hopewell Rock was second in the Ebor, often one of the best Melbourne Cup trial races in England. At his previous start he beat Small Fry, one of the O’Brien horses Point of Law beat in the Geelong Cup, which is a solid form line.

So You Are, by former globetrotter So You Think, has risen through the ranks quickly this season. The five-year-old has struck a rich vein of form, winning his last four, including the St Leger (G3) in Sydney and the Bendigo Cup (G3) at his last start. He’ll be ridden by the in-form Rachel King, fresh from her Caulfield Guineas (G1) success with Warwoven and keen to become the third woman to ride the winner of this race.

Of the others, Caulfield Cup (G1) third-place finisher #6 Enfjaar (26-1) deserves respect, as does #10 Goodie Two Shoes (51-1), second in this last year for O’Brien. It’s also worth remembering #3 Knight’s Choice (34-1) won this at 90-1 two years ago, and he put in a nice effort for third in the Herbert Power two starts back. He stays two miles and could easily figure in exotics.

Overall, it’s hard not to like Point of Law, James J Braddock, and Shockletz at their position in the weights. But this could go many ways. Good luck – if you strike this, you’re probably in for a very good week.