Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report March 21: Malagacy receives disappointing 95 for Rebel
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March 21st, 2017
Malagacy remained unbeaten making his first two-turn start in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, edging away to a two-length decision, and stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket with the 50-point prize. The lightly-raced colt has done everything right so far, but his 95 BRIS Speed rating won’t get it done against better rivals this spring.
Speed ratings can increase significantly for lightly-raced horses on the improve but Malagacy distinguished himself from the start of his career, registering a 104 figure posting a 15-length maiden tally at 5 ½ furlongs on January 4 and a 103 for a seven-length allowance romp at 6 ½ furlongs on February 12.
His numbers took a significant hit while stretching out in distance. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt is expected to return to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 15 and could turn things around in the final prep, but it’s difficult to get excited about his Kentucky Derby chances based upon the Rebel.
The next three finishers battled it out to the wire, with a photo needed to determine Sonneteer in second, a nose better than Untrapped with Petrov another nose back in fourth.
Sonneteer, who is now 0-for-9 and was overlooked at 112-1 after failing to finish within four lengths of the winner in his last three outings, did receive a career-best BRIS Speed rating but it was only a 93.
Risen Star (G2) third-placer Untrapped and Southwest (G3) runner-up Petrov saw their Speed figures decline.
Here are the top BRIS Speed ratings from Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year (90 or above, top four finish required):
|
Horse |
|
Race (finish position) |
|
BRIS Speed |
|
J BOYS ECHO |
|
Gotham (1st) |
|
104 |
|
GORMLEY |
|
Sham (1st) |
|
102 |
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Fountain of Youth (1st) |
|
102 |
|
IRISH WAR CRY |
|
Holy Bull (1st) |
|
102 |
|
AMERICAN ANTHEM |
|
Sham (2nd) |
|
102 |
|
ONE LINER |
|
Southwest (1st) |
|
101 |
|
TAPWRIT |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (1st) |
|
101 |
|
CLOUD COMPUTING |
|
Gotham (2nd) |
|
100 |
|
EL AREEB |
|
Jerome (1st) |
|
100 |
|
EL AREEB |
|
Withers (1st) |
|
99 |
|
MCCRAKEN |
|
Sam Davis (1st) |
|
99 |
|
GIRVIN |
|
Risen Star (1st) |
|
98 |
|
UNCONTESTED |
|
Smarty Jones (1st) |
|
97 |
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Holy Bull (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
PETROV |
|
Southwest (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
TAPWRIT |
|
Sam Davis (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
STATE OF HONOR |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Risen Star (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
STATE OF HONOR |
|
Sam Davis (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
MALAGACY |
|
Rebel (1st) |
|
95 |
|
ROYAL MO |
|
Robert Lewis (1st) |
|
95 |
|
PRACTICAL JOKE |
|
Fountain of Youth (2nd) |
|
95 |
|
THREE RULES |
|
Fountain of Youth (3rd) |
|
95 |
|
WILD SHOT |
|
Sam Davis (4th) |
|
95 |
|
ILIAD |
|
San Felipe (2nd) |
|
94 |
|
TRUE TIMBER |
|
Withers (2nd) |
|
94 |
|
WILD SHOT |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (3rd) |
|
94 |
|
GUEST SUITE |
|
Lecomte (1st) |
|
93 |
|
SONNETEER |
|
Rebel (2nd) |
|
93 |
|
J BOYS ECHO |
|
Withers (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
LOCAL HERO |
|
Risen Star (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Rebel (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
GUEST SUITE |
|
Risen Star (4th) |
|
93 |
|
NO DOZING |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (4th) |
|
93 |
|
PETROV |
|
Rebel (4th) |
|
93 |
|
CLASSIC EMPIRE |
|
Holy Bull (3rd) |
|
92 |
|
TERM OF ART |
|
San Felipe (3rd) |
|
92 |
|
IRAP |
|
Robert Lewis (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
PETROV |
|
Smarty Jones (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Lecomte (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
EL AREEB |
|
Gotham (3rd) |
|
91 |
|
ACTION EVERYDAY |
|
Gotham (4th) |
|
91 |
|
GORMLEY |
|
San Felipe (4th) |
|
91 |
|
ZAKAROFF |
|
El Camino Real Derby (1st) |
|
90 |
|
SHEER FLATTERY |
|
Robert Lewis (3rd) |
|
90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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