Kentucky Derby Context: Pavlovian

Much improved since adding blinkers two starts back, Pavlovian flashed early ability, breaking his maiden the second time out at Santa Anita and finishing second in the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar, but the gray colt struggled to get out of the starting gate and failed to factor when making three consecutive starts versus restricted stakes rivals during late fall/winter. He turned things around with a frontrunning Sunland Derby win in mid-February, and Pavlovian exits an encouraging runner-up effort in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), yielding grudgingly late to miss by a head. The Kentucky Derby (G1) represents a significant class check, but Pavlovian can make his own trip with tactical speed and enters on an upward trajectory.

OWNER: Reddam Racing (J. Paul Reddam) owned Kentucky Derby winners I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016). His first two Kentucky Derby starters, Ten Most Wanted (ninth) in 2003 and Wilko (sixth) in 2005, came in partnership, and Pavlovian will be his first Kentucky Derby starter since Irap finished 18th in 2017. A Canadian businessman and former philosophy professor at California State University, Reddam bought his first racehorse in 1998.

TRAINER: In his second Kentucky Derby appearance, Doug O’Neill saddled I’ll Have Another to a 15-1 upset in 2012. The 57-year-old trainer added a second Kentucky Derby victory four years later, with Nyquist scoring as the 2-1 favorite, and Hot Rod Charlie provided a runner-up finish in 2021 (placed second via disqualification). O’Neill will be back in the Kentucky Derby for the first time since Happy Jack’s 14th in 2022. His overall Kentucky Derby record reads 8-2-1-0. Based primarily in California, O’Neill has won five Breeders’ Cup races and a Preakness (G1) (I’ll Have Another).

JOCKEY: Edwin Maldonado will make his first Kentucky Derby start. After growing up in Puerto Rico, Maldonado launched his riding career in 2002, riding primarily in Texas and Louisiana before moving his tack to Southern California in 2010. He’s consistently been ranked among the top 10 jockeys on the circuit, winning three riding titles, and Maldonado is known for his proficiency with speed horses. Pavlovian has been prominent from the starting gate since adding Maldonado and blinkers two starts ago.

BREEDER: Bred in California, Pavlovian will be the first Kentucky Derby starter as a breeder for Reddam Racing.

SIRE: Pavlovian is from the third crop of Pavel, who didn’t make his career debut until July of his three-year-old season. Campaigned by Reddam Racing, Pavel won the Smarty Jones (G3) a few months later, and the son of Creative Cause recorded his biggest triumph as a four-year-old, taking the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. Pavlovian is only the second stakes winner by Pavel, but the sample size is relatively small.

DAM: Pavlovian is the first stakes winner out of Mandy’s Grace, a daughter of Bellamy Road who was owned by Reddam Racing and won one of three career starts. Mandy’s Grace is out of the multiple Grade 2-winning Storm Cat mare Magicalmysterycat. Bellamy Road finished seventh as the 5-2 favorite in the 2005 Kentucky Derby after winning the Wood Memorial (G1) by 17 1/2 lengths. He has yet to make an impact on any Triple Crown races as a broodmare sire.