Kentucky Derby Day Late Pick 4s include turf longshots

May 6th, 2017

The 143rd running of the $2 million Kentucky Derby anchors a Late Pick 4 (races 9-12) and I’ll leverage a few opinions with multiple tickets. Here are my thoughts on the sequence:

Race 9, American Turf (G3): #6 Arklow gained seasoning in a couple of dirt stakes while still winless and stylishly broke his maiden when switching to turf at Keeneland last out, striding away impressively to a 3 ½-length victory. No surprise to see him to take to the lawn given his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf star Fourty Niners Son and has already thrown a turf winner, and Arklow is a highly promising prospect, indeed. I’ll be playing him straight (12-1 morning line) and will single him on one Pick 4 ticket.

#2 Big Score rates serious consideration after posting a game win over rain-softened turf in the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland. #3 Parlor didn’t take to Poly last time but is eligible to show much more switching back to turf (3-2-1-0). #4 Oscar Performance and #10 Good Samaritan have the class to challenge and #7 Conquest Farenheit invades from California in good form and is a stakes winner on ground with give to it.

Race 10, Churchill Downs (G2): #13 Tom’s Ready hails from a hot Dallas Stewart barn and captured the Ack Ack (G3) last fall over a wet Churchill track. He rates a slight edge. #2 Masochistic appears to be a key player from the inside with his speed.

Will also spread on a ticket with #5 Clearly Now, #6 Forevamo, #9 Limousine Liberal and #12 Denman’s Call.

Race 11, Woodford Reserve (G1): Thought #1 Kasaqui was much the best last time but wound up a neck second after a ridiculously wide trip on both turns. He’ll be saving ground from rail post with new jock Joe Bravo and Arlington Million (G1) runner-up has experience over the course and can handle soft turf. And he’s 10-1 on the morning line. One of my best bets of the day.

#6 Bal a Bali and #12 Ballagh Rocks will be used as savers.

Race 12, Kentucky Derby (G1): #5 Always Dreaming is my pick – I like him all the way on the front end. If the top choice falters, #14 Classic Empire, #15 McCraken and #19 Practical Joke will be essential if still alive in the Pick 4.

Pick 4 Wagers

I will play the following 50-cent Pick 4 tickets (races 9-12) using a $90 bankroll:

6 with 2,13 with 1,6,12 with 5,14,15,19 ($12)

2,3,4,6,7,10 with 2,13 with 1 with 5,14,15,19 ($24)

2,3,4,6,7,10 with 2,5,6,9,12,13 with 1,6,12 with 5 ($54)

Good luck on Kentucky Derby Day!