Kentucky Derby Dream Bet Risen Star Stakes pick from Jennifer Caldwell

Saturday’s Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds kicks off the fun and excitement of TwinSpires.com’s $25,000 Kentucky Derby Dream Bet, which offers a grand prize of a 2016 Kentucky Derby weekend package for two and a $25,000 win bet on the Derby itself.

The Kentucky Derby Dream Bet is divided into two stages – the Qualifying Round (February 20 – March 26) and the Final Round (April 2 – 16). All players have to do is cash at least one $15 win bet on a single horse in any of nine contest races, which are also part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby points series.

As an added bonus, the player who places the most winning contest wagers during the Qualifying Round will win two tickets to the 2017 Kentucky Derby and Oaks.

The 1 1/16-mile Risen Star is the first race in the contest and Candy My Boy could be worth one of those $15 win wagers at 15-1 on the morning-line.

The Roger Brueggermann trainee has yet to face stakes rivals, but just might get the job done in his first try on Saturday.

The bay colt has shown steadily increasing form since joining his conditioner’s shedrow last fall. He competed in a pair of maiden claimers at Indiana Grand and Churchill Downs before finally breaking through with an initial win on New Year’s Eve in a Fair Grounds’ maiden special weight.

Candy My Boy wired that mile-and-70-yard contest by 2 1/4 lengths and returned just 2 1/2 weeks later on January 18 to do the same thing against allowance/optional claiming rivals. He scored by 2 3/4 lengths that day and saw his BRIS Speed rating bumped to a 90.

The Candy Ride colt’s Speed figures have steadily risen with his class level and he could continue that trend in this spot. Candy My Boy also posted a nice half-mile move in :47.60 over the track on February 12 to ready for his stakes debut.

Speaking of numbers, Brueggermann boasts a 37% win rate in graded stakes and has been firing at a 21% win rate thus far this year.