2025 Kentucky Derby reflection: What were the odds?

Among my editorial duties at TwinSpires.com is offering selections and analysis on many of the world’s great races, including the Kentucky Derby (G1). Because of early publishing deadlines during Derby week, these selections reflect my opinion on who is the most probable winner, rather than who is the best value in the market, which is unknowable at the time of writing.

The widespread popularity of the Kentucky Derby, in conjunction with some offbeat results in recent years, has resulted in a highly inefficient betting market, at least in the win pool. This past Saturday was yet another example.

While I felt the closing price on my top selection, Journalism, was a reasonable 3.42-1, given the advantages he seemed to possess on paper, the market made little sense in other instances. The longest shot on the board, Japanese raider Admire Daytona, was only 42-1, slightly higher than the distance-limited Neoequos and Grade 1 winner East Avenue, who was coming off a narrow loss in the Blue Grass (G1).

Although it made sense for bettors to be cool towards front-runners like Neoequos and East Avenue in a speed-laden race, how do you explain American Promise going off at a mere 12-1, which was lower than more logical closing types like Baeza and Burnham Square?

Render Judgment, distantly placed in only two of his five Derby preps, was sent off at only 20-1, significantly lower than more accomplished contenders. His price was arguably the least attractive among the field of 19.

Among the three besides Journalism to break from the gate at single-digit odds, Sandman and Luxor Cafe were clear underlays. Sandman was the deepest of the closers, except for Final Gambit, and would have needed the entire race to fall apart. Not impossible, but a slim proposition with only a measly 5-1 on offer. Luxor Cafe had positive off-track form, but taking 8-1 on a relative unknown from Japan was also unattractive.

Sovereignty, in contrast, was very likeable at 7.98-1, considering I expected his price to be closer to Sandman’s. I didn’t play him, having locked in on Journalism weeks earlier, but I couldn’t doubt his relative appeal in the win pool.

As the popularity of betting on the Derby continues to grow, I expect these inefficiencies in the win pool to continue. That won’t help those of us who must commit to a top pick days ahead of time, but the point to keep in mind is that betting isn’t halted until that last stall door is shut. In other words, keep your eyes open.