2025 Kentucky Derby reflections: Historic result in a vintage edition

Despite the sea of slop at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) delivered a satisfyingly logical result. It also brought the added resonance of history, not only with Godolphin finally winning the roses, but also achieving an incredible classic sweep stretching from Louisville to Newmarket over the entire weekend.

The race unfolded much as expected, with a fast pace courtesy of the rail-drawn Citizen Bull. The speedy Neoequos ensured last year’s champion two-year-old didn’t enjoy a cakewalk on the front end. While that might have been a recipe for deep-closing chaos, as we’ve seen in some years, thankfully, the best colts were the ones mounting eye-catching rallies this time.

Throughout my Derby handicapping, I kept envisioning favored Journalism getting the jump on Sovereignty and maintaining that advantage to the wire. So when Journalism uncorked his move on the far turn, and Sovereignty took off in his wake, I had the rare thrill of maybe getting the Derby right!

But once Journalism didn’t establish any meaningful separation, and Sovereignty was already at his throat-latch by the top of the stretch, my gut feeling was that this wasn’t going to follow my imaginary script after all. A relentless Sovereignty outlasted Journalism late.

I’d given Sovereignty plenty of respect, and even tabbed the Florida Derby (G1) as the strongest of the final preps. Yet my belief that Journalism would steal a decisive march on him kept prompting me to leave Sovereignty to a minor award.

The one I underestimated most was Baeza, who ran a remarkable race in third. Obviously, he had the form in the book as the close runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Yet I was concerned that he benefited from a small field that day, and the Derby could be culture shock for an inexperienced colt who had yet to celebrate his third actual birthday.

As it turned out, Baeza coped with the challenge very well and just missed catching Journalism for second. Blood really did tell in his case, as the half-brother to 2023 Derby hero Mage. Might he move forward from this Derby loss in the Belmont (G1), as his other half-brother, Dornoch, did last year?

Fourth-placer Final Gambit also did well when confronted by slop in his dirt debut. Taking his time to come to terms with the conditions after a rough start, he closed willingly from dead last. The Juddmonte homebred has a lot of upside.

Owen Almighty, who chased the pace and struck the front briefly, deserves great credit for boxing on in fifth. His effort was mighty in principle, but all the more so for a colt of doubtful stamina who was initially set for the Pat Day Mile (G2). 

Although I’m a bit biased since Burnham Square was in my top three (second in the betting guide), he was arguably the hard-luck story in the race. After bagging a good position on the rail, he got shuffled back at a crucial juncture when Japan’s Admire Daytona beat a retreat. Just as Journalism and Sovereignty were advancing on the outside, Burnham Square suddenly found himself well behind them. He recovered for sixth while leaving a “what if.” 

As a postscript to the Japanese contenders, Luxor Cafe lagged much farther behind than usual and never factored in 12th, and Admire Daytona trailed home last. Track conditions didn’t help, but it just underscores the difficulty of the task, and how remarkable it was for Forever Young and T O Password to finish third and fifth, respectively, in the 2024 edition.

Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum knows all about that difficulty, having tried to win the Derby for three decades before homebred Sovereignty landed the coveted trophy for Godolphin. He was the second half of a Kentucky Oaks (G1)/Derby double that kicked off with homebred Good Cheer. 

Not since the legendary Calumet Farm in 1952 had a single owner accomplished that feat, courtesy of Hall of Fame filly Real Delight and Hill Gail. Both were by Bull Lea, who had been the last sire responsible for three Derby winners.

Sovereignty put his sire Into Mischief into that exclusive company, now making it a club of five stallions overall. After Authentic (2020) captured the pandemic-delayed Derby, and Mandaloun (2021) was belatedly promoted via disqualification, Sovereignty became his first to wear the roses by crossing the wire first on the traditional day. 

Godolphin’s historic weekend extended to the British classics at Newmarket. Earlier on Saturday, Ruling Court prevailed in the 2000 Guineas (G1), and on Sunday, Desert Flower completed the set of trophies in the fillies’ classic, the 1000 Guineas (G1). Will we ever see such a four-timer again? Even better, all four winners look like exceptional types who will uphold this form as the season progresses.

If it’s early to make bold prognostications about the depth of this year’s Derby, I think it will be regarded as a vintage edition.