2026 Louisiana Derby Brisnet Speed Rating Report

Nine are set for Saturday’s $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, one of seven major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series offering points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers. Five of the nine runners in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby have already earned points toward a berth in a projected 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, and three horses will make their first stakes appearance.

Let’s review Brisnet Speed ratings for past winners and 2026 contestants. 

Past winners

From the last 10 runnings, only three favorites - Epicenter (2022), Noble Indy (2018), and Girvin (2017) – proved successful in the Louisiana Derby. But recent history hasn’t favored longshots, with By My Standards (2019) the only double-digit priced winner.

The last 10 winners received Brisnet Speed ratings in the 90-98 range in their previous start.

2026 Louisiana Derby

Horses listed in order of top last-out Brisnet Speed rating.

Analysis

Emerging Market made his career debut in a mile and 70-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs, rallying from off the pace to win by about a length over Powershift, with a 13 1/2-length gap to third. The race came back fast, with Emerging Market netting a gaudy 99 Brisnet Speed rating, and the promising son of Candy Ride also received an outstanding 106 Late Pace figure.

Powershift never fired after missing the break in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but his disappointing performance won’t adversely affect Emerging Market. Chad Brown has been bullish on Emerging Market’s training during the seven-week interim, and the stalker is fast enough to win the Louisiana Derby based upon numbers. The real question is his lack of experience. It’s a tall task to jump from a February maiden race to the Louisiana Derby, but Emerging Market has something going for him and will retain the services of Flavien Prat.

Chip Honcho rates as a deserving morning line favorite following an excellent runner-up effort to odds-on Paladin in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, grudgingly giving late to the early Kentucky Derby favorite by a half-length. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the speedy colt retains the services of Luis Saez, and Chip Honcho will take some beating if he continues to progress off a 97 Speed figure last time.

His first eight starts did not suggest a breakthrough in the Feb. 15 Sunland Derby, but Pavlovian stepped up with a career-best performance, receiving a commendable 95 Speed rating for the nose win. That number is at least 10 points higher than previous figures, so Pavlovian must avoid a possible regression while stepping up in competition Saturday.

Blacksmith finished second in December’s Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) while still a maiden and finally graduated while making his fifth career outing on Feb. 20, registering an encouraging 92 Speed figure for the 3 3/4-length decision. He appears to be coming along for six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert, and given his tactical ability, Blacksmith rates as a candidate to keep showing more in the Louisiana Derby.

Golden Tempo will add blinkers following a closing third in the Risen Star, in which he was too far back in the opening stages. The late-running son of Curlin flashed high promise when stretching to two turns to capture January’s Lecomte (G3) the second time out, and while numbers remain a little light at this stage, Golden Tempo is eligible to keep improving for Cherie DeVaux.

Universe has placed in three qualifiers, and recorded a fourth in another, and a minor award may be ceiling given his lower Speed ratings. Easterly stretched to two turns with a convincing maiden triumph at Gulfstream Park and is eligible to add to the pace, but I would like to see more from a numbers standpoint to consider backing. Spirit of Royal and Autobahn must run much faster than previous starts to make an impact.