KDFW Pool 4: Paladin closes as individual favorite at 9-1

After unbeaten champion Ted Noffey was knocked off the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail in late January, Paladin inherited the mantle of individual favoritism in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW). 

The Chad Brown trainee was pegged at 8-1 on the Pool 4 morning line for the opening of betting on Friday. On Saturday, Paladin confirmed his new status by rallying to a half-length decision in his Risen Star (G2) comeback at Fair Grounds. 

By Sunday evening, however, more late money came for the mutuel field of “All others,” which shortened to 9-2 upon the conclusion of trade. Saturday’s development on the Euro/Mideast Road – the victory by unbeaten Al Haram in the Saudi Derby (G3) – may have been a contributing factor. Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby, won by Pavlovian, went off after Pool 4 closed.

Paladin drifted to finish at 9-1. The Gun Runner colt has been listed in all the KDFW pools this cycle, and his price has dropped at every stage (40-1 in Pool 1, 22-1 in Pool 2, and 14-1 in Pool 3). 

Next in popularity was Nearly, who ended up closing at his morning-line odds of 10-1. A 20-1 chance in the mid-January Pool 3, the Todd Pletcher trainee boosted his candidacy by romping in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull (G3).

Another Brown pupil, Canaletto, was a major market mover bet down from 40-1 to 15-1. The impressive Gulfstream Park debut winner was making his first appearance as an individual interest in the KDFW.

Pletcher’s Renegade, a 37-1 shot in Pool 3, was backed into 16-1 in Pool 4. Runner-up to Paladin in last fall’s Remsen (G2), he raised his stature by capturing the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. 

Silent Tactic rounded out the top five individual interests at 19-1 in his KDFW premiere. The Mark Casse colt recently enhanced his profile with a deep-closing score in the Feb. 6 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. 

Two of the named interests in Pool 4, Mesquite and Thunderously, were ruled out of Derby consideration after the field was announced. While Mesquite was scratched early, wagering on Thunderously was suspended once the news broke late in the day Sunday.

Complete details, including will-pays and exacta probables, will be available on the special Future Wager page on KentuckyDerby.com. 

Two KDFW opportunities remain this spring. Pool 5 of the KDFW will run from March 13-15, concurrently with the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager. The final pool 6 is scheduled for April 2-4, closing prior to the last major preps in advance of the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2, 2026.