KDFW Pool 5: Paladin, Chief Wallabee close as overall 8-1 favorites; Zany 4-1 in KOFW
March 16th, 2026
Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) featured a virtual duel to the wire between morning-line favorite Paladin and up-and-comer Chief Wallabee. When betting closed at 6 p.m. ET Sunday evening, both colts finished as the 8-1 market leaders, with Paladin $982 ahead of Chief Wallabee in the win pool.
For the first time in the Future Wager series for the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1), the mutuel field of “All others” lost its grip on overall favoritism. It wound up as the sixth choice at 14-1.
Paladin, the unbeaten hero of the Remsen (G2) and Risen Star (G2), drifted upward from his 5-1 morning line in Pool 5. The Chad Brown trainee had ranked as the 9-1 individual favorite in Pool 4 that ran from Feb. 13-15.
But in the interim, a terrific renewal of the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28 altered the equation. The Brad Cox-trained Commandment edged Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee, elevating both of their Derby profiles.
Yet bettors were more bullish on the lightly-raced Chief Wallabee, who was making just his second career start in the Fountain of Youth. A 21-1 chance in Pool 4, he was listed at 10-1 in the Pool 5 morning line, and even that trimming did not go far enough to reflect his growing bandwagon.
Commandment was forecast as the Pool 5 alternative to Paladin, at 6-1 on the morning line, but he closed at twice the price – 12-1. Still, that was considerably more support than he’d received in Pool 4 as a 23-1 shot.
Also settling at 12-1 was Nearly, a mere $145 ahead of Commandment in the win pool. Last seen romping in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull (G3), the Todd Pletcher pupil had chased Paladin home in Pool 4 as a 10-1 chance. He floated upward from an 8-1 morning line in Pool 5.
Stablemate Renegade closed at 13-1 to round out the top five. The Remsen runner-up, who officially broke his maiden in the Sam F. Davis S., was bet down from a generous morning line of 20-1. He had been 16-1 in Pool 4.
The most dramatic market mover was Incredibolt, whose victory in Saturday’s Virginia Derby propelled him from 90-1 on the morning line to 16-1 by the end of trade. The Riley Mott colt had been an individual interest in the first three pools, but never more popular than a 28-1 shot in Pool 2, and he was dropped from Pool 4 after a dismal showing in the Holy Bull. His Colonial Downs heroics impressed bettors more than his last-to-first coup in the Oct. 26 Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs did.
⚡ INCREDIBOLT showed up big time and explodes in the stretch to win the Virginia Derby at @colonialdowns and pick up 50 @kentuckyderby points! @riley_mott trains the 3YO and @jaimetorresjcky was aboard!
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 14, 2026
A nice best bet from @ashleyand502! 💰
🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/bSBkInmwjW
The lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager ran concurrently with Pool 5 from Friday through Sunday evening, and Pletcher’s Zany held her position as the overall favorite despite a slight drift from her morning line. The unbeaten daughter of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah opened at 3-1 and finished at 4-1.
It was a similar story with Godolphin’s Bella Ballerina, who maintained second-choice status as a 7-1 chance. The half-sister to 2023 Oaks champion Pretty Mischievous was initially pegged at 6-1.
The joint 10-1 shots on the morning line, Explora and She Be Smooth, went in different directions in the betting. While Explora shortened into the clear third choice at 8-1, She Be Smooth ticked upward to 11-1.
Complete results, including will-pays and exacta probables, will be available on the special Future Wager page at KentuckyDerby.com.
The final KDFW opportunity, Pool 6, is slated for April 2-4. Note that the Thursday-Saturday window closes before the last round of points races.
The 152nd Kentucky Derby will be contested on May 2, preceded by the May 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
2026 Kentucky Derby Future Wager | Pool 5
| Horse | ML Odds | Final Odds |
|---|
#1 Blackout Time | 40-1 | 41-1 |
#2 Brant | 40-1 | 55-1 |
#3 Buetane | 50-1 | 63-1 |
#4 Canaletto | 30-1 | 40-1 |
#5 Cherokee Nation | 20-1 | 19-1 |
#6 Chief Wallabee | 10-1 | 8-1 |
#7 Chip Honcho | 50-1 | 45-1 |
#8 Class President | 20-1 | 28-1 |
#9 Commandment | 6-1 | 12-1 |
#10 Confessional | 90-1 | 156-1 |
#11 Danon Bourbon | 75-1 | 58-1 |
##12 Emerging Market | 40-1 | 33-1 |
#13 Express Kid | 75-1 | 259-1 |
#14 Fulleffort | 90-1 | 89-1 |
#15 Further Ado | 20-1 | 25-1 |
#16 Golden Tempo | 30-1 | 36-1 |
#17 Great White | 50-1 | 84-1 |
#18 Incredibolt | 90-1 | 16-1 |
#19 Intrepido | 50-1 | 69-1 |
#20 Iron Honor | 25-1 | 41-1 |
#21 Litmus Test | 50-1 | 45-1 |
#22 Lucky Kid | 90-1 | 150-1 |
#23 Napoleon Solo | 60-1 | 57-1 |
#24 Nearly | 8-1 | 12-1 |
#25 Paladin | 5-1 | 8-1 |
#26 Pavlovian | 90-1 | 210-1 |
#27 Potente | 15-1 | 18-1 |
#28 Pyromancer (JPN) | 90-1 | 85-1 |
#29 Reagan's Honor | 25-1 | 38-1 |
#30 Renegade | 20-1 | 13-1 |
#31 Robusta | 40-1 | 174-1 |
#32 Salloom | 90-1 | 181-1 |
#33 Secured Freedom | 90-1 | 160-1 |
#34 Silent Tactic | 20-1 | 17-1 |
#35 Six Speed | 90-1 | 66-1 |
#36 So Happy | 90-1 | 103-1 |
#37 Stark Contrast | 90-1 | 227-1 |
#38 Talk to Me Jimmy | 90-1 | 55-1 |
#39 The Puma | 25-1 | 23-1 |
#40 All Other 3YOs | 12-1 | 14-1 |
2026 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager
| Horse | ML Odds | Final Odds |
|---|
#1 A. P.'s Girl | 90-1 | 129-1 |
#2 Bank Shot | 30-1 | 145-1 |
#3 Bella Ballerina | 6-1 | 7-1 |
#4 Bottle of Rouge | 20-1 | 14-1 |
#5 Brooklyn Blonde | 90-1 | 98-1 |
#6 Counting Stars | 20-1 | 22-1 |
#7 Dazzling Dame | 30-1 | 48-1 |
#8 Explora | 10-1 | 8-1 |
#9 Forced Entry | 15-1 | 27-1 |
#10 French Blue | 50-1 | 61-1 |
#11 French Friction | 60-1 | 18-1 |
#12 Hit Parade | 50-1 | 177-1 |
#13 Just Singing | 50-1 | 45-1 |
#14 Kadabra | 90-1 | 228-1 |
#15 Knicklendime | 90-1 | 250-1 |
#16 Labwah | 80-1 | 54-1 |
#17 Life of Joy | 20-1 | 64-1 |
#18 Love and Trust | 90-1 | 62-1 |
#19 Luv Your Neighbor | 30-1 | 51-1 |
#20 Market Chill | 90-1 | 119-1 |
#21 Maximum Offer | 60-1 | 243-1 |
#22 Meaning | 15-1 | 12-1 |
#23 My Miss Mo | 50-1 | 101-1 |
#24 Newtown Pike | 60-1 | 83-1 |
#25 Nycon | 80-1 | 72-1 |
#26 On Time Girl | 50-1 | 56-1 |
#27 Paradise | 30-1 | 54-1 |
#28 Pashmina | 90-1 | 500-1 |
#29 Percy's Bar | 30-1 | 15-1 |
#30 Powered by Family | 30-1 | 133-1 |
#31 Prom Queen | 20-1 | 83-1 |
#32 Resplendence | 30-1 | 183-1 |
#33 Search Party | 50-1 | 65-1 |
#34 She Be Smooth | 10-1 | 11-1 |
#35 Sneaky Good | 50-1 | 112-1 |
#36 Sticker Shock | 30-1 | 102-1 |
#37 Swing Vote | 80-1 | 112-1 |
#38 Taken by the Wind | 80-1 | 73-1 |
#39 Zany | 3-1 | 4-1 |
#40 All Other 3YO Fillies | 20-1 | 17-1 |
