Scully: Pick 3 play on Kentucky Derby Day

The 151st running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) caps a sequence of special wagers, but I’ll lean on a traditional Pick 3 sequence to try to capitalize on my selections.

The $1 million Derby City Distaff (G1), one of six seven-figure stakes on the Churchill Downs program, will kick it off, and the Kentucky Derby serves as the anchor. Here are my thoughts:

$3 Pick 3 (races 10-12)

• 2,15 with 1,2,7,10 with 1,12,17,18 ($96)

Derby City Distaff (G1)

#2 Kopion (8-1) will be tough to beat if she runs back to her performance in the Feb. 1 Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita, netting a 106 Brisnet Speed rating for a stylish 4 1/4-length decision, and she could easily get bet down from the morning line. Unbeaten from four sprint starts, Kopion rates as a major Breeders’ Cup Filly & Sprint (G1) contender for Richard Mandella. I will also include #15 Grand Job (10-1), who will draw into the race with Taxed opting for a Friday stakes race. The four-year-old daughter of Justify will be tested for class, but I was impressed by her allowance win last out and give Grand Job a chance to run big on the front end.

Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1)

After a couple of underwhelming performances to open 2024, #1 Integration (4-1) wound up fourth in this event last year. He’s a much better horse now, finding his form with a sharp Grade 2 score last fall and runner-up finishes in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), and nine furlongs looks like his best distance (three wins). 

Two of the three Chad Brown runners, #7 Running Bee (5-1) and #10 Spirit of St Louis (9-2), will be added. And a longshot of interest, #2 Golden Phoenix (10-1), is a versatile type for Phil D’Amato, who will be cutting back in distance for his second start this year, and is also in the mix.

Kentucky Derby (G1)

#17 Sandman (6-1) needed to step up with a big performance in his final prep and delivered a strong late kick to win the Arkansas Derby (G1), netting a 101 Brisnet Speed rating. And I think the Mark Casse-trained son of Tapit will have more to offer Saturday.

I will also key #18 Sovereignty (5-1) in all wagers. An eye-catching winner of the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs last fall, Sovereignty moved forward this year with good showings in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). I think he likes Churchill more than Gulfstream, and Sovereignty will be rolling late in the Kentucky Derby.

I won’t let the speed beat me, including #1 Citizen Bull (20-1) and #12 East Avenue (20-1) in my Pick 3.

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