Splish, Splash – Who Has a Shot in the Kentucky Derby Slop?

With the rain coming down in Louisville, Churchill Downs looks to be a bit wet as we count down to post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1). With the scratches of Rodriguez and Grande, the field stands at nineteen horses, coming into the race from as far away as Japan and as close as Turfway Park. Ahead of the big race, which of the nineteen stands a good chance of turning in a big performance in the slop?

Factors like experience running on an off track as well as turf experience elevate several contenders that could influence your Derby wagers.

Journalism

While the Derby favorite has not yet run on an off track, he does have one secret weapon in his corner: his sire, Curlin. This leading sire and two-time Horse of the Year has already produced classic winners in Palace Malice, who won the 2013 Belmont S. (G1), and Exaggerator, who won the 2016 Preakness (G1) in the slop. Curlin’s progeny currently have an 18% win percentage on a wet track.

Flying Mohawk

This $72,000 yearling purchase has yet to run on dirt, but jockey Joe Ramos said he was hoping for a wet track for this Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) runner-up. This son of Karakontie has been working well over the Churchill surface ahead of this weekend and Ramos reported being pleased with how Flying Mohawk was handling Churchill after his last start over the synthetic. Horses with turf experience tend to be more forward on wet dirt tracks, so keep this contender on your radar as the day goes on. 

Neoequos

Neoequos drew into the Derby field via the scratch of Tappan Street, his thirds in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1) earning him enough points to be eligible for this year's big race. This son of Neolithic debuted over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park, but lost his rider at the start. In early January, Neoequos notched a win in a six-furlong maiden special weight on a wet Gulfstream dirt track, finishing 3 1/2 lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. He breaks from post 2, so he will be somewhat of a disadvantage on the inside of this nineteen-horse field, but if he can find a comfortable running position, Neoequos could be in the top three at the wire. 

Coal Battle

This son of Coal Front debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana last July. He was sixth at the first call and then wound his way through the field to hit the stretch in front and stretch out his lead to 3 1/2 lengths at the wire, handling the sloppy track with no trouble. Two starts later, Coal Battle tried the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs, a 6 1/2-furlong stakes on a muddy track. Jockey Juan Vargas had the colt sitting fifth of seven early and then moved to the lead in the stretch, his margin of victory 2 1/2 lengths. The Rebel S. (G2) winner is definitely one to consider as you build your tickets today. 

American Promise

This son of Justify has sloppy track experience via his race at Churchill in late September, finishing eighth of 11 that day, but his sire famously ran a spectacular race on the first Saturday in May, taking the 2018 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths. This D. Wayne Lukas trainee then went to Oaklawn Park and broke his maiden in a late December 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight, beating Publisher by 1 1/2 lengths. American Promise definitely has the potential to make hay of a wet track on the big day.

Publisher

This still-maiden Derby contender may be winless, but he does have two starts over the slop, one at Churchill Downs, a one-mile maiden special weight back in September. There, this son of American Pharoah was third, and then in his first start at Oaklawn Park in late December, Publisher was second behind American Promise in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on a sealed muddy track. Steve Asmussen has yet to win a Kentucky Derby, and Publisher might just be able to deliver the Hall of Fame trainer his first Run for the Roses. 

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