Hanson: The best longshot to bet in the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Determining the best longshot to play in the Kentucky Derby (G1) is very much like choosing your top selection. You want to find a horse with acceptable current form who is likely to adapt well to the conditions of the race in terms of distance, surface condition, and probable pace. The likelihood of him improving off his recent performances is also imperative. The only grace to be given is on past accomplishments, hence the reason why they will be longer price compared to other contenders.

With only three career starts, Grande's future remains bright, and in a race seemingly chock-full of speed, his rating ability might ultimately prove the preferred style. But the main drawback for Grande is also that relative inexperience. Despite the recent heroics by Justify (2018) and Mage (2023), the Kentucky Derby remains a tough nut to crack for horses without any juvenile foundation.

One prime example of this is Grande's own sire, Curlin. While that bloodline ensures Grande is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles with ease, recall that Curlin himself could only finish third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby despite having won the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) en route to Churchill Downs. Curlin wound up being Horse of the Year, but on the first Saturday in May, had not quite the foundation and experience to beat a vintage group of three-year-olds.

Nonetheless, Grande's attributes arguably outweigh the negatives. If not a top selection, Grande is certainly deserving of attention in most wagering plans.

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