Hanson: The best longshot to bet in the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Determining the best longshot to play in the Kentucky Derby (G1) is very much like choosing your top selection. You want to find a horse with acceptable current form who is likely to adapt well to the conditions of the race in terms of distance, surface condition, and probable pace. The likelihood of him improving off his recent performances is also imperative. The only grace to be given is on past accomplishments, hence the reason why they will be longer price compared to other contenders.

Unlike the last two editions of the Derby, there is very little pressure this year on owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. They were under the microscope in 2023 and 2024 by virtue of having the Derby favorite in the barn, neither of which turned out satisfactorily. Forte was scratched on Derby morning in 2023 due to a bruised hoof, and last year Fierceness turned in the worst performance of his career after racing far too close to a blistering early pace.

#10 Grande (20-1) doesn't enter this year's Derby with the accomplishments of those two juvenile champions, but he does fit much of the criteria noted above. Grande was impressive enough in winning the first two starts of his career at Gulfstream over the winter, and displayed improvement again when finishing second in his stakes debut, the Wood Memorial (G2), to a loose-on-the-lead Rodriguez.

With only three career starts, Grande's future remains bright, and in a race seemingly chock-full of speed, his rating ability might ultimately prove the preferred style. But the main drawback for Grande is also that relative inexperience. Despite the recent heroics by Justify (2018) and Mage (2023), the Kentucky Derby remains a tough nut to crack for horses without any juvenile foundation.

One prime example of this is Grande's own sire, Curlin. While that bloodline ensures Grande is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles with ease, recall that Curlin himself could only finish third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby despite having won the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) en route to Churchill Downs. Curlin wound up being Horse of the Year, but on the first Saturday in May, had not quite the foundation and experience to beat a vintage group of three-year-olds.

Nonetheless, Grande's attributes arguably outweigh the negatives. If not a top selection, Grande is certainly deserving of attention in most wagering plans.

Editor’s note: With the scratch of Grande and the emergence of a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, #3 Final Gambit—30-1 on the morning line and currently 15-1 in the betting—has emerged as one of the best longshots to bet in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Although Final Gambit has yet to race on dirt, his pedigree suggests he’ll handle the surface switch and potentially relish the sloppy footing. He exits a stretch-running win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on synthetic, in which he closed the final three furlongs in a blazing :36.21 to dominate by 3 1/2 lengths.

Final Gambit earned a sharp 101 Brisnet Speed rating in the Jeff Ruby, so he ranks among the fastest horses on paper in this Kentucky Derby field. If a quick pace unfolds (which appears likely), look for Flying Gambit to close a lot of ground down the Churchill Downs homestretch.

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