Tipsheet: 2025 Kentucky Derby

A total of 21 three-year-olds are entered for Saturday’s highly anticipated $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. 

Kentucky Derby Picks

• #8 Journalism 
• #3 Final Gambit
• #18 Sovereignty
• #1 Citizen Bull

Kentucky Derby Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 8 with 1,3,18
• $3 Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,18 with 1,3,7,13,14,17,18
• $1 Superfecta: 3,18 with 1,3,8,18 with 1,3,8,18 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17,18

Kentucky Derby Contenders

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#1 CITIZEN BULL (20-1): Champion juvenile didn’t fire his best shot in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out and received the dreaded rail post in the massive field, but the Bob Baffert trainee remains a contender, nonetheless. By top sire Into Mischief, the massive colt has an abundance of speed and class, and he could be dangerous at a big number if Martin Garcia can navigate a sensible trip atop the Kentucky-bred. 

#2 NEOEQUOS (30-1): Speedy sort from the Saffie Joseph shedrow finished third in both the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in advance of Saturday. The son of Neolithic is a question mark at the 1 1/4-mile distance, but he gets Prat to ride and will likely be part of the early action in the event, as well. 

#3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1): Major win threat ran a lifetime best when drawing off late in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) most recently and will relish the move to 10 furlongs in his dirt debut. Juddmonte homebred has reportedly trained in good fashion on the local strip and the Brad Cox pupil will be rolling home in the lane under Luan Machado. 

#4 RODRIGUEZ (12-1): Second from the Baffert barn led throughout in a convincing tally in the Wood Memorial S. (G2) in his latest venture. The rapidly developing son of Authentic has good gate presence and will be forwardly placed from the break with Mike Smith in the irons. 

#5 AMERICAN PROMISE (30-1): D. Wayne Lukas trainee comes in off a dominant victory in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs in his latest appearance. The chestnut son of Justify has good early foot, and he will be in the hunt late if he repeats his latest performance. Nik Juarez will take the reins. 

#6 ADMIRE DAYTONA (30-1): First of the pair of Japanese imports was ultra game in eclipsing the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan for Kato. Drefong colt is a wildcard in the cast and will have the excellent Christophe Lemaire in the silks. 

#7 LUXOR CAFE (15-1): Bay son of American Pharoah has been sharp during his current four-race win streak and can’t be overlooked while making his stateside debut. The Kentucky-bred colt has displayed a big turn of foot on multiple occasions this campaign, and he is bred to run in a race like this one, too. ‘Magic Man’ Moreira retains the ride. 

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1): Top pick and horse to beat has won four races in succession for Mike McCarthy and checks all the boxes to succeed in this historic contest. Curlin colt has tactical speed combined with a devastating closing burst, and he will be tough to upend with a clear voyage beneath regular pilot Umberto Rispoli. 

#9 BURNHAM SQUARE (12-1): Blue Grass S. (G1) hero from the Ian Wilkes barn has elevated his game since adding blinkers in December and appears to be the type to handle 1 1/4 miles. The gelded son of Liam’s Map has a sustained closing kick and will be passing numerous runners in the lane with Brian Hernandez, Jr. accepting the mount. 

#10 GRANDE (20-1): Lightly raced colt from the Pletcher barn was last seen coming home a clear second in the Wood Memorial S. (G2) while making his stakes debut. By Curlin, the Repole color bearer will need to take a step forward to challenge for the win in the race, but he’s far from impossible with John Velazquez taking the reins. 

#11 FLYING MOHAWK (30-1): Jeff Ruby runner-up has put in a trio of very good runs in succession leading up to this and will race with blinkers off on Saturday. Whit Beckman charge has improved his Brisnet Speed figure in each lifetime run, and if he handles the move to the dirt, then the son of Karakontie could challenge for a top-five finish under Joseph Ramos. 

#12 EAST AVENUE (20-1): Grade 1 winner was a game second in the Blue Grass S. (G1) most recently and could be the pacesetter in the big field for Brendan Walsh. Medaglia d’Oro colt will be sent hard from the start and might get brave if he clears under the guidance of Manny Franco. 

#13 PUBLISHER (30-1): Arkansas Derby (G1) second ran a big one in advance of the Run for the Roses and will attempt to break his maiden in this endeavor. The first of two from the Asmussen shedrow is a consistent late runner on the improve, and I love that Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be in the silks atop the deep-closing son of American Pharoah. 

#14 TIZTASTIC (20-1): Win threat was very impressive in his convincing Louisiana Derby (G2) triumph in his latest showing for Asmussen. The son of young sire Tiz the Law could be in line for a big result if he moves forward off his last performance beneath Joel Rosario. 

#15 RENDER JUDGMENT (30-1): Blue Grass S. (G1) fifth was a late addition to the field and looks like an outsider at this stage of his development. Blame colt will be fit with six route races under his belt to date, but he’d be a surprise with Julien Leparoux signed on. 

#16 COAL BATTLE (30-1): Exotics contender is a major question mark at 10 furlongs, but the Rebel S. (G2) star has the talent and versatility to be in the mix turning for home at a huge number. Lonnie Briley pupil will be making his move approaching the turn for home with Juan Vargas staying in the silks. 

#17 SANDMAN (6-1): Arkansas Derby (G1) winner has been in consistently good form in 2025 and rates as a logical win threat for trainer Mark Casse. The $1.2 million yearling purchase will handle the distance with relative ease, and if he receives a favorable trip, he could be the one under Jose Ortiz. 

#18 SOVEREIGNTY (5-1): Prime contender was a five-length winner of the Street Sense S. (G3) in his lone prior run beneath the Twin Spires. The Bill Mott charge had two very good prep races this season leading up to the Derby, and the Godolphin homebred will be charging home in the lane while reuniting with Junior Alvarado. 

#19 CHUNK OF GOLD (30-1): $2,500 bargain purchase checked in second in both the Risen Star S. (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) for conditioner Ethan West. The Kentucky-bred gray will need a major move forward to get a piece from this post slot, but he’s training swiftly, and I expect the colt to give a nice account of himself with Jareth Loveberry in the stirrups. 

#20 OWEN ALMIGHTY (30-1): Tampa Bay Derby (G3) hero showed some distance limitations when sixth in the Blue Grass S. in his latest offering and looks to be in a tough spot from the widest post position. Brian Lynch trainee is quick and figures to be forwardly placed from the break, however. Javier Castellano has the call. 

#21 BAEZA (12-1): Shirreffs pupil is on the also-eligible list, but he could be a contender if he gets into the main body of the group. The $1.2 million son of McKinzie was only three-quarters of a length behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and he has room to grow with the move to 1 1/4 miles, as well. He will have Flavien Prat riding if he gets in. 

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