Let's go to the videotape: One Lucky Dane

In addition to studying the Brisnet past performances, another key element of handicapping is investing the time to watch the race replays available in the voluminous TwinSpires archive.

The visual evidence is especially helpful when evaluating lightly raced prospects on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail, for you can get a better sense of the horse as an individual, and not a number on the page. Sometimes you can watch the youngster's progress unfold, step by step, from race to race.

A case in point is One Lucky Dane, one of Hall of Famer Bob Baffert's battalion of Derby hopefuls. While he's lower on the depth chart than unbeaten Dortmund and champion American Pharoah, the colt from the first crop of Lookin at Lucky was a steady improver in his first three outings. His advance was halted by a sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but that could be only a temporary blip for a very promising type.

One Lucky Dane made his debut in what turned out to be an incredibly deep maiden -- Del Mar's 4TH race on August 9, 2014. Won in runaway fashion by Om (who hasn't been seen since), the 6 1/2-furlong dash featured American Pharoah, only fifth as the 7-5 favorite, as well as Calculator, who went on to chase American Pharoah in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and FrontRunner (G1) before romping in the Sham S. (G3).

Sent off at 11-1, One Lucky Dane didn't have the early speed to mix it up with Om or American Pharoah, and settled a few lengths behind the fast pace of :22 2/5 and :45. He lost position turning for home, where he was caught behind a fading rival, and looked a bit green to boot. Jockey Rafael Bejarano maneuvered him through a seam on the inside, and One Lucky Dane finished with interest. Under considerate handling, he did his best work late and edged Calculator for third. (Click here for the chart).

 

That pleasing introduction had "two-turn horse" written all over it, and One Lucky Dane duly stretched out to a mile for his second start, the 10TH race at Del Mar August 30. Now bet down to 3-2 favoritism beneath a returning Bejarano, One Lucky Dane hustled from his outside post 10 to vie with Conquest Hiosilver through fractions of :23, :47 and 1:12 2/5. Our case study appeared to be traveling the better of the pair as he struck the front swinging into the stretch. But instead of pulling away, One Lucky Dane began to tread water, and the rail-skimming Conquest Hiosilver came back to prevail by a half-length. (Click here for the chart).