May 16, 2026 Spot Plays: Newbury, Laurel, Churchill Downs

Saturday is Preakness Day at Laurel, of course, but there is a stellar card at Newbury in England to start the day, and Churchill Downs will host a night program which largely takes place after the Preakness is run. In other words, I'll be spanning the globe in search of opportunities.

Newbury Race 3: Lockinge (G1), 9:35 a.m. ET

This top-level, straight mile for older horses has come up deep, so much so that U.S. champion and Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner Notable Speech is currently third choice in the overseas betting market. I will try to beat him and the top two betting choices, however, with #6 More Thunder (12-1).

Closer to half that morning line price currently in the overseas market, More Thunder had an excellent campaign last term, rising from handicap star to Group 2 winner in the seven-furlong Hungerford (G2) over this course. That Hungerford win was rather authoritative, too, after he was involved in photo finishes in historic handicaps like the Wokingham and Bunbury Cup.

More Thunder took the absolute worst of the draw in the Prix de la Foret (G1) at Longchamp when last seen in October. Widest of 16, he quickly dropped out to the back and simply conceded too much ground to his rivals over seven furlongs. He was good enough, though, to weave his way through traffic, and was still gobbling up ground when he crossed the line in fourth, 2 3/4 lengths behind Maranoa Charlie.

Given his fondness for this course and his progressive form, More Thunder is likable in this spot for William Haggas, whose yard has made noise during the early part of the British flat season.

After desultory showings by two selections at York on Thursday, the British bankroll stands at $616.90. I'll bet 5% of the balance, $31, on More Thunder to win.

Laurel Race 4: Skipat S., 12:16 p.m. ET

#1 Striker Has Dial (8-1) improved markedly after blinkers were reapplied last season. She won three of six starts, including the Endine S. at Delaware Park to conclude her season.

She also finished second in this race to Zeitlos, a better filly or mare than what I think Striker Has Dial faces in this edition. And though her efforts at Saratoga last summer were sub-par, note that both occurred over sloppy tracks. She's won in the mud before, but she much prefers it fast. It's also worth noting she was being beaten by the likes of recent Grade 1 winner R Disaster.

Striker Has Dial has a versatile running style, important as she breaks from post 1, and she appears to be coming into this race in reasonable fitness. Her string of works includes a bullet five furlongs in :59 on April 17.

Churchill Downs Race 6: Allowance, 8:30 p.m. ET

#3 Shotgun Wedding (15-1) has rarely run a mile or farther, a shame given her small sample of success. She won the Ontario Damsel S. going 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta last fall, but it was her prep for that, a one-mile turf allowance on Sept. 21, that catches my eye.

Shotgun Wedding was gaining ground inside the final furlong and wound up missing by only a half-length to And One More Time, a pretty good measuring stick against this field. And One More Time won the Natalma (G1) at two, narrowly missed to Destino d'Oro in the Tropical Park Oaks after winning that Woodbine allowance, and most recently captured the Plenty of Grace S. at Aqueduct.

If Shotgun Wedding can fare that well against a mare like that, she might be able to contend here at a price. At the very least, she's obviously a better filly than she showed at Keeneland last month in a dirt sprint allowance that was not a good fit for her at all.