Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for June 9, 2025

Jason looks back on the 2025 Triple Crown series and those horses going forward. 

A good Monday morning to you all! Kind of a chaotic Belmont day and weekend with the weather, surface changes, and cancellations, but the race itself still turned out to be exciting and worth talking about. I talked about all the other stuff on my podcast for this morning, so if you want my thoughts on all that, find The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast for June 9th here on TwinSpires Edge or wherever you find your podcasts. 

The Belmont Stakes itself felt very much like a coronation for Sovereignty. It affirmed not only his Derby win but his place comfortably atop this year’s three-year-old class. It sounded like after the race, Bill Mott was hinting that the Travers might be their next goal with the Dubai World Cup as the ultimate prize next winter/spring. 

We’re at that time of the year now where these horses who spent their time on the Derby trail start to go on their divergent paths from one another. You will have some of these horses who will stay at the Grade 1 level and work their way towards the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. Some will cut back, like we saw in the Woody Stephens, and move forward to the King’s Bishop. Some will head towards the more regional Derby races like the Oklahoma Derby, Ohio Derby, and West Virginia Derby. But we’ll also see some new names and faces develop as “second half” three-year-olds who step their game up. 

One of the best times of year for play against underlays is horses who were prominent on the Derby trail as they move forward. They’ve obviously had some success on the trail and have very strong name recognition going up against some of those lesser-known and “second half” three-year-olds, and are almost always smashed in the win pools at these smaller circuits or lower-level races. And they often don’t win. Sure, they will sometimes, but at terrible prices. I always equate three-year-old racing to college sports. They’re still developing, and sometimes the ones who are really good early aren’t necessarily the ones who are great at the next level. We shall see if that plays true to Sovereignty as he moves forward in his career. 

Journalism was certainly one of the headliners of this class as he went off as the favorite in all three races of the Triple Crown, winning the Preakness and running second in the Derby and Belmont. It’s been a remarkable five weeks for him, and you can debate in the Belmont if the tough nature of the race sequence finally caught up to him, was the ground loss a detriment, or did he just get beaten twice by a horse who’s better than him? I’m sure in some ways it’s a combination of all three factors, but that last point, getting beaten by a horse who is better than him, feels like the underlying answer. It’s not to say he can’t beat Sovereignty if they meet up again in the Travers or Breeders’ Cup, but he certainly will have to do something to turn the tables. 

To me, horse racing always has unofficial seasonal markings. To me, Santa Anita’s opening day on Dec. 26 always feels like the start of the racing new year. Spring officially begins with the final round of Kentucky Derby preps. Summer starts with Del Mar and Saratoga. For me, the second half of the year begins now, not on July 1st as the calendar would indicate. So much will happen between now and the Breeders’ Cup. Now, so many will see a clear path for Sovereignty to the Classic, but there’s a lot of road in front of him and us to get to that point. 

Have a great week, everyone!