Pick 5 Evangeline Downs Friday August 5: Using Everyone's Single

August 4th, 2022

When we use the most obvious single in a sequence, we need to be careful not to take horses who will similarly be on everyone’s ticket. Think of it as the scales of justice - all the money will be on #7 Becca’s Rocket (2-1) in the Spotted Horse which weighs down one side of the scale. If we can't counter with horses who will be worth a similar weight in value, then we need to pass the sequence because the last thing we need is to brag to our friends that we hit another Pick 5 paying $50. Luckily, a pace set-up favoring closers, a favorite who has had perfect set-ups, a money-burner, and a 12-time losing mud specialist are in each of the other legs - horses we can beat.

4, 5
1A, 5
4, 7
  • All As: $2
  • All Aas and Bs: $12

Race 4 Turf 5 Furlongs Alw 22000C 3 yo & up

A: A banger to light the Pick 5 fuse with six formful front runners looking to toast their competition on the lead. It’s hard to turn away from Zozos’ half-brother, #3 Emerald Forest (7-5), who has the class edge, the jets and the endurance to finish. But we’d be foolish to use him along with Beeca’s Rocket, so we must decide, and the pace scenario convinces me that #6 Galaxy Builder (7-2) is the one, making his first start for Eduardo Ramirez and with Vicente Del Cid aboard, will be looking to eat the pace meltdown leftovers for dinner. 

Bs: Assuming the prices hold up on Sam David Jr.’s #4 Ahimaaz (10-1) and Karl Broberg’s #5 Prizeless (8-1), I’ll use them as well. 

Race 5 Dirt 1 Mile OC10k/SAL5k|Purse: $14K 3 yo & up fillies 

A: The front-runners fest continues in Race 5, though one stands out more than the others, especially because of the likely price we will get. Ron Faucheux’s #3 Varsity Flygirl (6-1) has excuses for the last handful of races, otherwise Faucheux would surely be dropping in against claimers. #1 Blazing Charm (9-5) has had favorable set-ups in the last two, so we’ll pass, and separate again from the herd here.

Race 6 Turf 1 Mile Alw 22000N1X|Purse: $22K 3 yo & up fillies

A: Strange conditions for this anything-but n1x, which expands the field by exempting three-year-old statebred allowance wins. Not to get all conspiratorial on you--these racing secretaries need to get creative to fill their races, I get that--but let’s look at the two horses who fit only because of that very specific exemption: #1a Money Well Spent (5-2) and #5 Tecate Time (15-1). Money Well Spent finally returns to the turf after being rained off again and again. Tactically, she has the edge, able to be up early and finish late. The last time Tecate Time ran on turf, she ran a 79 Bris Speed figure, which is two points higher than the par, and stared down the likes of Youens and Ready to Venture. Likely won’t get this price as the connections salivate to be in this spot. #3 Glance (2-1) won’t get another chance to burn up my money while going for her 10th win here.

Race 7 Dirt 1 Mile Spotted Horse 50k 3 yo & up restricted to fillies non-winner of a stakes

A: Another race condition to peer into. The poster child for non-stakes winning fillies in this circuit is #7 Becca’s Rocket (2-1). 0 for 4 on the year, she returns from Iowa after running well but never threatening on the win end, which is a common occurrence for this four-time in the money stakes runner. But compared to this field, she has been facing monsters (including Pauline’s Pearl). Making her third start in her form cycle, she has a huge speed figure edge, so we will stop being clever and single.

B: But if we did want to beat this filly…  Looking for a price that is in fabulous form, finished second to Net a Bear in her last, Del-Cid returns, a front runner, and 8-1 on the morning line? #2 Lady Valentine (8-1) is there for you if you want to be the only ticket without Becca’s Rocket. We narrowed down so much that it only costs $6 to add.

Race 8 Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs Md 7500 3 yo & up

As: #4 Pac the Pulpit (7-2) broke well, was held back a bit too far, and came running late, never threatening, but passing the winner in the gallop out. The added distance today will make the difference. It’s hard to imagine Jose Guerrero hoping back on #6 Little Man E Dubai (9-2) if he didn’t have good memories of the five in-the-money runs they had together back at Delta Downs.