Player Quick Pick: 12/28/2014
Aqueduct showcases New York breds on Sunday with two New York Stallion Stakes races. The first, Race 3, figures to be a battle between The Lewis Dinner and Omagoddonna. Race 5 is a somewhat deeper affair.
Aqueduct Race 5 – 2:16 PM ET
New York Stallion Series for 2 year olds going 6f
1-Clockwork – 5/2 – After breaking his maiden in fine fashion over the mud at Belmont going 6 furlongs, Clockwork had a terrible time in his first race versus winners. The Timothy Hills trainee was bumped at the start and then had to go three-wide around the turn. He ended up finishing fourth and losing by 4.25 lengths. Hills has worked Clockwork 4 times since then including a terrific 5 furlongs in 1:01.2 on Dec. 22 at Belmont Park. It was the second fastest work out of 26 moves at the distance that day. Jockey Angel Arroyo should be able to stay a length behind the front-runners before either angling out for a clear run or trying a run up the rail. This will be Clockwork’s third lifetime race and that gives him an edge over morning line chalk Disco Partner.
3-Disco Partner – 8/5 – The odds figure to be much shorter than the 8/5 morning line, but it’s difficult not to keep the chalk out of the exacta in this event. There is other speed in this that can rough up Disco Partner early, meaning that going gate-to-wire won’t be easy, but the James Ryerson trainee appears to be the most talented horse in this field. Jockey Junior Alvarado pressed the speed going three-wide in the maiden race before winning by 1.25 lengths. At one point, Disco Partner was ahead by over 4 lengths in the race. Ryerson only wins with 3% of the horses that he enters into non-graded stakes races. He only wins 5% with horses that go first time against winners after their maiden scores. Disco Partner is talented but there are some reasons to believe that he might bounce after such a stunning first race.
7-Chasing Bubbles – 8/1 – Trainer Kenny McPeek enters this two-year-old son of Posse into this New York Stallion Stakes after breaking his maiden at the $40,000 claiming level over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. This race is over the inner dirt as well and Chasing Bubbles has already run over the track twice. The experience over the track should help this horse against this supposedly much tougher field on Sunday. I write supposedly because two-year-olds can get very good in a hurry. McPeek is a smart trainer. He knows that if things go Chasing Bubbles’ way in this, he could steal it on the front end. Jockey Israel Rodriguez will try to ration Chasing Bubbles’ speed but that may not be possible with Disco Partner in this. In any case, Chasing Bubbles should help set things up for the top pick, Clockwork.
Aqueduct Race 5 – 2:16 PM ET
New York Stallion Series for 2 year olds going 6f
1-Clockwork – 5/2 – After breaking his maiden in fine fashion over the mud at Belmont going 6 furlongs, Clockwork had a terrible time in his first race versus winners. The Timothy Hills trainee was bumped at the start and then had to go three-wide around the turn. He ended up finishing fourth and losing by 4.25 lengths. Hills has worked Clockwork 4 times since then including a terrific 5 furlongs in 1:01.2 on Dec. 22 at Belmont Park. It was the second fastest work out of 26 moves at the distance that day. Jockey Angel Arroyo should be able to stay a length behind the front-runners before either angling out for a clear run or trying a run up the rail. This will be Clockwork’s third lifetime race and that gives him an edge over morning line chalk Disco Partner.
3-Disco Partner – 8/5 – The odds figure to be much shorter than the 8/5 morning line, but it’s difficult not to keep the chalk out of the exacta in this event. There is other speed in this that can rough up Disco Partner early, meaning that going gate-to-wire won’t be easy, but the James Ryerson trainee appears to be the most talented horse in this field. Jockey Junior Alvarado pressed the speed going three-wide in the maiden race before winning by 1.25 lengths. At one point, Disco Partner was ahead by over 4 lengths in the race. Ryerson only wins with 3% of the horses that he enters into non-graded stakes races. He only wins 5% with horses that go first time against winners after their maiden scores. Disco Partner is talented but there are some reasons to believe that he might bounce after such a stunning first race.
7-Chasing Bubbles – 8/1 – Trainer Kenny McPeek enters this two-year-old son of Posse into this New York Stallion Stakes after breaking his maiden at the $40,000 claiming level over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. This race is over the inner dirt as well and Chasing Bubbles has already run over the track twice. The experience over the track should help this horse against this supposedly much tougher field on Sunday. I write supposedly because two-year-olds can get very good in a hurry. McPeek is a smart trainer. He knows that if things go Chasing Bubbles’ way in this, he could steal it on the front end. Jockey Israel Rodriguez will try to ration Chasing Bubbles’ speed but that may not be possible with Disco Partner in this. In any case, Chasing Bubbles should help set things up for the top pick, Clockwork.
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