Player Quick Pick: Monmouth for 6/14/2014

June 14th, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

The feature at Monmouth on Saturday is the $60,000 Little Silver Stakes at 1 mile over the turf. Race 9, a $50,000 claimer, appears to be one for horseplayers to target as well.

Monmouth Park race 9 | 4:41 pm ET Claiming (50) for 3&up going 1 mi. 70yds

5 – Cease – Paco Lopez could ride a miniature horse in a race and you’d have to consider backing it. That’s how well Paco’s riding at Monmouth. His record is 41-12-24 from 117 rides. That’s 35% and he’s a jockey. Cease won’t offer odds, but trainer David Jacobsen wins 33% first time claiming, Cease has only run in optional claiming events, and he’s saddled 11 winners out of 41 at Monmouth. Don’t look past the chalk in the seventh at Monmouth on Saturday.

3 – Jay Eye See – Trainer Jorge Navarro is only winning at 21% at the current Monmouth meet, but he wins 40% first after the claim and that’s the situation with Jay Eye See, a four-year-old colt sired by Curlin, in this $50K claimer. Jockey Eddie Castro is riding well and Jay Eye See should be in the first flight of horses, meaning that he’s likely to get a great trip. Jay Eye See goes into this off of two decent works after the May 10 claim.

1 – Start Jumping – Closers haven’t been doing as poorly over Monmouth’s notoriously speed-favoring main track as they usually do this meet. Start Jumping, another trained by David Jacobsen, takes a big drop from the $62,500 optional claiming level to this. Horseplayers should pay attention because Start Jumping has a 5-4-5 record out of 18 starts. If Cease, Jay Eye See, the super quick D’Marin and Rolling Yona run each other out, Start Jumping should be there to pick up the pieces.

Monmouth Park race 10 | 5:20 pm ET Little Silver for 3yo F going 1 mi. (T)

3 – Super Sky – This Todd Pletcher trainee, purchased for $235,000 at the 2013 Keeneland April Sale, looks like she’s finally coming into her own. She’s 1 for 1 over the Monmouth turf course, has a record of 2-3-1 from 8 lifetime starts and is trained by Pletcher who’s winning at 33% at the meet. Jockey Eddie Castro is likely to keep her close to the pace since there doesn’t appear to be a lot of early hoof. Her chances of winning this are much better than the 4 to 1 morning line odds assume.

5 – American Girl – This High Chaparral filly trained by Alan Goldberg was terrific in her debut race, a minor stakes event over an artificial surface at Dundalk in Ireland. She won by 4 lengths. Her breeding suggests that turf is the surface that she wants. She also gets Lasix, which could be the thing that helps get her first place money in this. The odds might drift higher because the other import, My Jolie, is owned by Team Valor International and has run in graded races.

1– Legal Laura – Trainer Kathleen O’Connell only wins at 14% with horses trying grass for the first time, but Legal Laura breaks from post-position one, meaning that she’ll definitely save ground, and she might be the lone speed in this. If nobody goes with her early, jockey Luis Garcia will guide her to soft fractions and then try and hold first place until the wire. Yes, she doesn’t appear to have the lungs for a mile, but she won’t have to run a half in :44 like she did in a race two back at Tampa Bay Downs. Horseplayers should consider using Legal Laura on all tickets.