Player Quick Pick: Saratoga Pick 4 for 7/20/2014
by Andrew Champagne
Saratoga’s opening weekend concludes with 11 races on Sunday and a very, VERY tough late Pick Four sequence. However, if you hit it, you’ll get your share of a $500,000-guaranteed prize pool, so I’ll take my shot at it.
RACE #8: I thought this was a neat race for older state-breds. There are some classy, hard-knocking sorts in here, and I went four-deep.
I’m using the entry of #1 Cousin Michael and #1A Indy Tune (3-1), #6 Sir Leslie (4-1), #7 Beautyinthepulpit (5-1), and #8 Ultimate Empire (6-1). Sir Leslie is my top pick, since there’s ample speed and he’ll be coming late, but Ultimate Empire loves Saratoga and is the only horse with a win at the 1 1/8-mile distance, so he could easily spring up at a price.
I’m not using #5 Fiona’s Hero, the 7/2 second choice on the morning line. He won a starter allowance at Monmouth last out, but he sat a dream trip. The fractions weren’t fast, and they crawled home, finishing in just 1:38 4/5 for the mile over what’s usually a pretty fast track. He hasn’t run badly since moving to the Michelle Nevin barn, but betting him off his last race seems like a mistake.
RACE #9: This is another fun one. I went two-deep in this turf route and used horses at opposite ends of the racing spectrum.
My top pick is #11 Crown Queen (7/2). She’s a half to Royal Delta whose 2014 debut was easily her best race ever. She posted a bullet workout earlier this month at the Spa, and it sure seems like she’s getting better and better.
On the other hand, we have my longshot of the day. #4 Indian Starlight
(30-1) rarely gets bet. She’s gone off at single-digit odds just once in her last 12 outings, and she showed a little rust in her 2014 debut last month. However, she loves Saratoga, and ran two great races here last year. She probably needed her last race after a brief freshening, and if you throw out her races at Gulfstream, a much different surface than what she’ll see Sunday, 30-1 looks like an absolute steal.
RACE #10: This is the Coaching Club American Oaks, and nobody will benefit more from the absence of Untapable than #2 Unbridled Forever (9/5). She’s a consistent sort who always fires and has run third in back-to-back Grade 1 efforts. Untapable goes elsewhere, and she doesn’t have to face one-turn monster Sweet Reason at her preferred distance, either.
#1 Stopchargingmaria (8/5) has too much back class to leave out entirely, and I’m using her as well, but the horse who may spring the upset is #6 Taketheodds (8-1). She’s reeled off two wins in a row, has plenty of tactical speed in a race that’s not loaded with it, and Hernandez comes to New York to ride for Ian Wilkes. She should love the stretch-out, the race sets up for her, and if she’s 8-1, I may very well take the odds on Taketheodds.
RACE #11: What a mess. Here we have a full field of 12 state-bred maiden claimers going long on the grass, and if you want to hit the “ALL” button and have the bankroll to do so, go right ahead.
Me? I went with my top four horses. #3 Wake Up and Go (5-1) has been knocking on the door, #9 Rontos New York (6-1) may be the lone speed in the field, #10 Tsonga (12-1) is a Wesley Ward firster that draws world-class rider Frankie Dettori, and #11 Hushhushmushmush (3-1) will drop in for a tag for Chad Brown, who’s hitting at a 29% clip with first-time claimers like this one.
Ultimately, this ticket costs $48 for a 50-cent bet. It’s a really tough sequence to end the weekend on, for sure, but hopefully you can hit it and have some cash in your pocket for the work week ahead.
Saratoga’s opening weekend concludes with 11 races on Sunday and a very, VERY tough late Pick Four sequence. However, if you hit it, you’ll get your share of a $500,000-guaranteed prize pool, so I’ll take my shot at it.
RACE #8: I thought this was a neat race for older state-breds. There are some classy, hard-knocking sorts in here, and I went four-deep.
I’m using the entry of #1 Cousin Michael and #1A Indy Tune (3-1), #6 Sir Leslie (4-1), #7 Beautyinthepulpit (5-1), and #8 Ultimate Empire (6-1). Sir Leslie is my top pick, since there’s ample speed and he’ll be coming late, but Ultimate Empire loves Saratoga and is the only horse with a win at the 1 1/8-mile distance, so he could easily spring up at a price.
I’m not using #5 Fiona’s Hero, the 7/2 second choice on the morning line. He won a starter allowance at Monmouth last out, but he sat a dream trip. The fractions weren’t fast, and they crawled home, finishing in just 1:38 4/5 for the mile over what’s usually a pretty fast track. He hasn’t run badly since moving to the Michelle Nevin barn, but betting him off his last race seems like a mistake.
RACE #9: This is another fun one. I went two-deep in this turf route and used horses at opposite ends of the racing spectrum.
My top pick is #11 Crown Queen (7/2). She’s a half to Royal Delta whose 2014 debut was easily her best race ever. She posted a bullet workout earlier this month at the Spa, and it sure seems like she’s getting better and better.
On the other hand, we have my longshot of the day. #4 Indian Starlight
(30-1) rarely gets bet. She’s gone off at single-digit odds just once in her last 12 outings, and she showed a little rust in her 2014 debut last month. However, she loves Saratoga, and ran two great races here last year. She probably needed her last race after a brief freshening, and if you throw out her races at Gulfstream, a much different surface than what she’ll see Sunday, 30-1 looks like an absolute steal.
RACE #10: This is the Coaching Club American Oaks, and nobody will benefit more from the absence of Untapable than #2 Unbridled Forever (9/5). She’s a consistent sort who always fires and has run third in back-to-back Grade 1 efforts. Untapable goes elsewhere, and she doesn’t have to face one-turn monster Sweet Reason at her preferred distance, either.
#1 Stopchargingmaria (8/5) has too much back class to leave out entirely, and I’m using her as well, but the horse who may spring the upset is #6 Taketheodds (8-1). She’s reeled off two wins in a row, has plenty of tactical speed in a race that’s not loaded with it, and Hernandez comes to New York to ride for Ian Wilkes. She should love the stretch-out, the race sets up for her, and if she’s 8-1, I may very well take the odds on Taketheodds.
RACE #11: What a mess. Here we have a full field of 12 state-bred maiden claimers going long on the grass, and if you want to hit the “ALL” button and have the bankroll to do so, go right ahead.
Me? I went with my top four horses. #3 Wake Up and Go (5-1) has been knocking on the door, #9 Rontos New York (6-1) may be the lone speed in the field, #10 Tsonga (12-1) is a Wesley Ward firster that draws world-class rider Frankie Dettori, and #11 Hushhushmushmush (3-1) will drop in for a tag for Chad Brown, who’s hitting at a 29% clip with first-time claimers like this one.
Ultimately, this ticket costs $48 for a 50-cent bet. It’s a really tough sequence to end the weekend on, for sure, but hopefully you can hit it and have some cash in your pocket for the work week ahead.
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