Player Quick Pick: Woodbine for 4/27/2014

by Ryan Dickey

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THE TICKET: WOODBINE 4 $1 Pick-4 ... 1-6,8 over 1,6,7 over 1,3 over 5 ($42) Note: Woodbine has a $0.20 pick-4, so you can play according to your budget.  I stick with $1.00 plays in multi-race bets

Playing a very beatable $100,000 guaranteed Pick-4 at Woodbine today.  Going to use an “almost” ALL in the first leg, three in the second leg, two in the third leg, and a single to win it.

RACE 4: Using “almost” ALL of the runners in this MSW going 5 furlongs.  Going to kick out the longest shot on the board, the #7 Sixmile because adding blinkers on this horse isn’t going to make him leaps and bounds better here, which is what he’d need to be in order to win.  Safely ignore him, put the rest on the ticket, and hope for the best price left to get to the wire first. 1,2,3,4,5,6,8

RACE 5: The 5th is an Optional Claimer for 3 yo+ that have never won two races other than maiden, claiming, or restricted Allowance, or three races or claiming price of $62,500.  The first pick in this leg is the #1 Jagger M, running for trainer Mark Casse, who is making his second start of the year after finishing third in a race similar to this at Keeneland on April 5.  He has hit the board in 4 of his last 5 starts, and has two places and a show in 3 starts at this distance.  Should be right in the mix for the win..

The #6 Avie’s Quality is bringing a price to the table at 10-1 on the morning line.  The connections for this horse had every intention of racing in the Triple Crown last year, but those hopes were derailed after the LeComte in January.  He was on the shelf until November, when he returned to home-track Woodbine in a race similar to this.  His 2013 campaign ended with that race, and this will be his second start of 2014.  He has the talent when healthy, and the price is too good to ignore.

#7 Northern Hammer is the morning line favorite, after an impressive Woodbine (and synthetic surface) debut last time out.  His April 12 romp in Allowance company here earned him a lifetime-best 97 Beyer figure.  With this being only his third start off the layoff, the dreaded “bounce” is probably not in the cards for this Medaglia d’Oro gelding.  This 6 year old should hit the board, but won’t pay much.  1,6,7

RACE 6: In this $10,000 Claimer going 5 furlongs on the All-Weather track, I only see two probable winners, but neither will be a big price.  Using the coupled-entry #1 Bachelorette and #1A Storm Crier as both have an excellent chance to win.  Even if one of them scratches from the race, you can still use the other with confidence.  Both mares are making their second start of the year after finishing 3rd and 4th last time out in a similar race.  It’s ALWAYS a good idea to incorporate coupled-entries in your betting strategy because you get two-for-one.  Use them in confidence.

The #3 Drava finished second, ahead of Bachelorette and Storm Crier in that April 13 claiming race here at Woodbine, and is the most probable winner today. Jockey Matt Moore piloted this mare to her best finish since a similar September 11, 2013 claiming race, and looks to get her to the finish line first.  1,3

RACE 7:  The most obvious winner on the card at Woodbine today is easily the #5 Holy Wow.  She’s set to break her maiden in this race today, and her trainer has a ridiculous ROI in “second off the (long) layoff”, as well as positive ROI in synthetic starts, sprints, and in Maiden Claimer races (16 .44 $3.40).  Installed as the 6-5 favorite, she’ll be less than even-money come post-time.  When you have a pick-4 ticket with a single in the final leg--THIS is the horse you want to have.  Yes, this one will pay the LEAST of the pick-4 “will pays”, but if we are alive coming into race 7, we have the absolute best chance of winning this $100,000 Guaranteed Pick-4. 5