2024 Preakness Stakes Picks: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 149th Race

May 18th, 2024

For many years, the Preakness (G1) at Pimlico was dominated by horses exiting the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks prior. But trends are shifting, and now “new shooters” who did not compete in the Derby are winning the Preakness with regularity.

The last 40 years of Preakness history tell the story. Between 1984 and 2016, 30 out of 33 Preakness winners came out of the Kentucky Derby. Only Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006), and Rachel Alexandra (2009) managed to defy the trend.

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Predictions for what horse will win the Preakness Stakes

  1. Mugatu - unlikely to win
    1. Pro: Owns 1-for-2 record going two turns on dirt, which is the primary plus.
    2. Con: Enters with questionable form and still eligible for first-level allowance.
  2. Uncle Heavy - low chance to win
    1. Pro: Withers (G3) winner moves up the rankings if the track comes up wet.
    2. Con: Lack of tactical foot a concern, especially if pace isn’t a fast one.
  3. Catchiing Freedom - high chance to win
    1. Pro: Ran well behind top three in Kentucky Derby (G1); form solid all season.
    2. Con: Like Mystik Dan, will he be effective returning on relatively short rest?
  5. Mystik Dan - high chance to win
    1. Pro: Worked out a great trip in the Kentucky Derby, just held on in a thriller.
    2. Con: Tired-looking horse at Derby’s end and not effective the last time he ran back on short rest.
  6. Seize the Grey - low chance to win
    1. Pro: Pulled off surprise in Pat Day Mile (G2), albeit in modest time.
    2. Con: Concedes significant back class to the top players.
  7. Just Steel - moderate chance to win
    1. Pro: Barn has a history of winning this with colts who threw in duds at Churchill Downs.
    2. Con: Seems a couple cuts below, and still hasn’t won beyond 6 1/2 furlongs.
  8. Tuscan Gold - good chance to win
    1. Pro: Barn has won this twice with colts who bypassed Kentucky Derby.
    2. Con: A demanding test to win this off eight-week break against more experience foes.
  9. Imagination - good chance to win
    1. Pro: San Felipe (G2) winner a hard knocker, first or second in all six starts.
    2. Con: Tends to come up on the short end of photo finishes, losing three times by a neck.

What are the odds for the Preakness Stakes horses?