Sovereignty snapped a three-year run of double-digit odds Kentucky Derby (G1) winners, scoring as the 7.98-1 third choice among 19 runners, but he will skip Saturday’s 150th edition of the $2 million Preakness (G1). Three Kentucky Derby contestants will return, including runner-up Journalism, who has been installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite among nine runners in the middle leg of the Triple Crown. 

We won’t find longshots like Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022 Kentucky Derby), Mine That Bird (50-1 in 2009), and Giacomo (50-1 in 2005) in the roll call of Preakness winners – Master Derby recorded the biggest upset at 23-1 in 1975 – but the Preakness has still proved a challenging race to handicap, with no favorites prevailing since Justify in 2018. In fact, the last two Triple Crown winners (American Pharoah and Justify) are the only favorites to win in the last decade.

Thirteen of the last 16 Preakness winners had registered a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating. Exceptions include two of the biggest longshot winners this century, Rombauer at 11.90-1 in 2021 and Seize the Grey at 9.80-1 last year, and four Preakness contestants have met the triple-digit threshold this year.

No Speed ratings are available for Heart of Honor, who will attempt to become the first international invader to win the Preakness. Let’s preview the two most recent Speed ratings for the rest of the 2025 field, ranked by the top last-out number.

Takeaways

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who owns a record eight Preakness wins, Goal Oriented merits serious respect after netting the top last-out Brisnet Speed rating (104) for a frontrunning allowance win on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His inexperience rates as a legitimate concern, with Goal Oriented entering off only two previous starts, breaking his maiden at six furlongs in early April. Survivor, the inaugural Preakness winner in 1873, is the only horse to capture the Preakness in his third start.

Recent winners Early Voting (2022) and Cloud Computing (2017) had only three previous starts, so perhaps Goal Oriented will be talented enough to overcome his lack of foundation. By top sire Not This Time, the dark bay colt will also have to deal with a tricky rail post, but he has the tactical ability to make his own trip and is bred to relish the stretch out to 1 3/16 miles. He’s fast and promising, but it’s fair to question whether the Preakness will be too much too soon for Goal Oriented.

Journalism rates as the one to beat on numbers, registering a field-best 108 for Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory two back, and the powerfully built son of Curlin has netted triple-digit figures in his last three starts, winning four consecutive races prior to the Kentucky Derby. His four-race string of triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings ended in the Kentucky Derby stretch, as Journalism weakened to second as the 3.42-1 favorite, but the Michael McCarthy-trained colt exited the race in great shape, according to reports.

His early trip at Churchill Downs wasn’t ideal in my estimation, as Journalism got forced toward the rail and shuffled back to 10th entering the first turn, but he made the best of it from that point and has an excellent chance to rebound at Old Hilltop. Lookin at Lucky, who experienced a troubled trip finishing sixth as the favorite for Baffert in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, is the last horse to win the Preakness after faltering as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

American Promise owns the second-best Speed rating, receiving a 105 for his 7 3/4-length victory in the Virginia Derby two starts previously. Bet down as the 12-1 fifth choice in the Kentucky Derby, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt will need to rebound from a disappointing 16th. His trip wasn’t ideal, as American Promise rushed forward to force the action on the backstretch after getting interfered with at the start, and Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to get a horse to rebound off short rest.

A seven-time Preakness winner, Lukas's last two Triple Crown wins came in the middle leg, including Oxbow, who rebounded after a sixth in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Preakness winners Timber Country (1995), Tabasco Cat (1994), and Tank’s Prospect (1985) also lost the Kentucky Derby for Lukas, and Seize the Grey came back on two weeks' rest after winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) on last year’s Kentucky Derby undercard. 

American Promise is listed at 15-1 on the morning line, but given his strong Virginia Derby win and the respect Lukas projects to receive from bettors, his price figures to be lower come post time. The chestnut colt was perhaps a race short last time, returning from a seven-week freshening on Derby Day, and I won’t be surprised to see American Promise turn things around with a good showing. He will show speed from post 3 with Nik Suarez.

Sandman received a 101 Speed rating, winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he never seriously got involved from off the pace in the Kentucky Derby, rallying belatedly for seventh as the 5.77-1 second choice. He’s trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, who saddled War of Will to a minor upset in the 2019 Preakness after a seventh in the Kentucky Derby, and Sandman will look to get involved from off the pace on Saturday.

Clever Again appears on the cusp of triple-digit Speed ratings, earning a 99 for a sharp four-length win in the March 30 Hot Springs S. at Oaklawn Park last out. That was only his third career start, and the well-bred colt is conditioned by Hall of Famer and two-time Preakness winner Steve Asmussen. He’s never faced graded stakes competition or raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, so the Preakness represents a major class check, but Clever Again has something going for him.

River Thames registered back-to-back 99 Speed ratings before declining three points in the Blue Grass (G1), checking in a close third, and he may benefit from skipping the Kentucky Derby in favor of the Preakness. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher will seek his first win in the middle leg of the Triple Crown, and River Thames remains a candidate to keep progressing. His tactical ability may prove advantageous, but the bay colt’s last effort at nine furlongs raises some concerns about the added distance.

Gosger exits a nice win in his stakes debut, the April 12 Lexington (G3), and his numbers are eligible to keep increasing with experience. A maiden winner two back, the Brendan Walsh-trained colt hails from the immediate female family of 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another, and the Lexington represented his first two-turn attempt. But Gosger faces a major challenge given his recent numbers. 

Pay Billy stamped his Preakness ticket by winning the Federico Tesio S. at Laurel Park, but he rates as an outsider based on Speed ratings.

Good luck in Preakness 150!

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