A Speedy Favorite to Bet in the Preakness

Thirteen of the last 16 Preakness winners had registered a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating. Exceptions include two of the biggest longshot winners this century, Rombauer at 11.90-1 in 2021 and Seize the Grey at 9.80-1 last year, and four Preakness contestants have met the triple-digit threshold this year.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who owns a record eight Preakness wins, Goal Oriented merits serious respect after netting the top last-out Brisnet Speed rating (104) for a frontrunning allowance win on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His inexperience rates as a legitimate concern, with Goal Oriented entering off only two previous starts, breaking his maiden at six furlongs in early April. Survivor, the inaugural Preakness winner in 1873, is the only horse to capture the Preakness in his third start.

Journalism rates as the one to beat on numbers, registering a field-best 108 for Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory two back, and the powerfully built son of Curlin has netted triple-digit figures in his last three starts, winning four consecutive races prior to the Kentucky Derby. His four-race string of triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings came to an end in the Kentucky Derby stretch, as Journalism weakened to second as the 3.42-1 favorite, but the Michael McCarthy-trained colt exited the race in great shape, according to reports.

His early trip at Churchill Downs wasn’t ideal in my estimation, as Journalism got forced toward the rail and shuffled back to 10th entering the first turn, but he made the best of it from that point and has an excellent chance to rebound at Old Hilltop. Lookin at Lucky, who experienced a troubled trip finishing sixth as the favorite for Baffert in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, is the last horse to win the Preakness after faltering as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Read the full speed rating analysis here

A Lucrative Longshot to bet for the Preakness

The longest-priced winner in Preakness (G1) history, Master Derby (1975), returned $48.80, a far cry from some of the triple-digit payoffs we’ve seen in the Kentucky Derby (G1) over the last 20 years. There are several obvious factors for the discrepancy between the two races, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had at Pimlico.

On the contrary, there have been some healthy win payoffs in just the last 15 years alone: Shackleford (2011) paid $27.20, Oxbow (2013) $32.80, Cloud Computing (2017) $28.80, Swiss Skydiver (2020) $25.40, Rombauer ($25.60), and Seize the Grey (2024) $21.60.

On paper, Gosger has a lot going for him. He’s 2-for-3, his lone setback being a second in his debut over a too-short six furlongs. He’s won both his interim starts at a mile or longer, including the April 12 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland by a widening two lengths in his stakes debut.

While his speed ratings suggest he has some improving to do to be in the Preakness frame, Gosger undoubtedly has the scope to do so. He’s in good hands with trainer Brendan Walsh, who enjoyed an outstanding spring on the Kentucky circuit, and his stalk-and-pounce style figures to serve him well in a race seemingly loaded with pace. Additional distance is certain to suit.

Read the full longshot analysis here

Pace of the Race, How the Preakness Stakes will be run...

Pacesetters

#1 Goal Oriented
Breaking from the rail will likely force this lightly raced colt to employ pacesetting tactics again, rather than risk getting buried in traffic (and kickback) behind horses.

#8 Clever Again
Expect to see this son of American Pharoah challenge Goal Oriented for early supremacy.

Pressers/Stalkers

#3 American Promise
Even though vying early with Goal Oriented and Clever Again could prove tricky, a switch to true rating tactics in the Preakness seems unlikely.

#5 Pay Billy
While certainly not a need-the-lead type, his pace-tracking wins in the Private Terms S. and Federico Tesio S. suggest Pay Billy will be forwardly placed at Pimlico.

#6 River Thames
He pressed the pace when finishing second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2) against future Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, arguably his best performance to date.

#9 Gosger
This stoutly bred colt figures to race prominently again in the Preakness.

MIDPACK CLOSERS

#2 Journalism
Journalism isn’t a deep closer, but he likes to settle off the pace and come running down the homestretch. 

#4 Heart of Honor
Against a speed-packed Preakness field, Heart of Honor figures to race toward the rear of the pack early on, but without dropping too many lengths off the pace.

DEEP CLOSERS 

#7 Sandman
Expect to see this gray colt trailing the Preakness field down the backstretch.

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