Preakness Stakes: Weather forecast, chance of rain for the day of the race

May 18th, 2024

National Weather Service Detailed Forecast for the Baltimore area during the Preakness Stakes.

Saturday: Showers. High near 65. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

With an 80% chance of rain in the forecast for Baltimore on Saturday, the Preakness is very likely to be contested on an off track. But will it be a total splash-fest, closer to good, or a muddy in-between?

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Preakness Forecast

Mystik Dan must be loving the forecast, considering that he posted his best Brisnet Speed rating (101) in his Southwest romp. Retired jockey Robby Albarado, who has been galloping the colt, made the following comments to the Preakness publicity team:

“He feels good on all tracks, but there’s something about this that he just gets over it easy. Going way back, and I’m not making a comparison, but Curlin (the Hall of Famer who won the 2007 Preakness with Albarado) was like that. On a muddy track, Curlin would just maul them. He got over it like glass, like an ice skater. This horse is similar in getting over it the same type of way.”

Who else is eligible to move up in the mud?

“Seize the Grey would be better on it,” Lukas said in the Preakness notes. “He’s already won on a wet track. I think he’d be fine. 

“The other horse, I don’t know,” Lukas added of Just Steel, who’s been beaten in both of his off-track attempts. “I’d rather it be dry for him. We’ll see. I don’t know exactly what he will do. Let’s just hope it’s dry.”

Catching Freedom was third in the Risen Star (G2) in his lone try over off going, but he was still lugging in then. It’s unclear, or questionable, if track condition had anything to do with his result.

Although Tuscan Gold has yet to race in such conditions, Brown’s assistant Jose Hernandez reported that the colt “seems to like it” in his training. By Medaglia d’Oro and out of a Curlin mare, he ought to be right in his element.

Imagination is another venturing into new territory, but progeny of Into Mischief boast an 18% strike rate in the mud. Maternal grandfather Empire Maker doesn’t hurt that profile either.  

From a big longshot perspective, Uncle Heavy is 2-for-2 on wet tracks. The Butch Reid pupil won a Pennsylvania-bred stakes last December over a good track at Parx, and his signature win in the Withers (G3) came at a muddy Aqueduct

RELATED: Top 5 Storylines for 2024 Preakness Stakes by Kellie Reilly