The best longshot to bet in the 2026 Preakness Stakes

Golden Tempo won the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks ago and paid $48.24 to win, an amount virtually equal to the longest-priced Preakness (G1) winner of all time, Master Derby, who returned $48.80 in 1975.

As noted in this space a year ago, we've seen six Preakness winners in the last 15 years pay more than $20 to win. That doesn't guarantee we'll see another one on Saturday, but only that the race has produced some surprises of late.

This one-off edition of the Preakness at Laurel has attracted an unusual capacity field, so perhaps the chances of another surprise have inherently increased. Who among the likely longer prices, then, has the best chance to do so?

While not among my top two selections, I have come around to accepting that #5 Talkin (20-1) is the longshot to keep an eye on in this Preakness. He's proven capable at hitting the board in some big events, and his best is surely yet to come.

Although winless since his debut at Saratoga last August, note he defeated eventual Derby favorite Further Ado in that race. That rival has since returned the favor twice, and with retroactive interest in the Blue Grass (G1), but it's evidence at least that Talkin can beat a prominent member of the class.

In addition to unfortunately catching Further Ado over his beloved Keeneland strip, Talkin has been on the wrong end of some other freakish efforts. Another example was his distant second to returning rival Napoleon Solo in the Champagne (G1). Talkin seems poised to turn the tables on that one here over a distance of ground.

I can forgive Talkin's two most significant losses. He ran no race whatsoever in the Remsen (G2) when caught wide on both turns breaking from post 11, and in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), he unsurprisingly weakened late after rating too close off a solid enough pace.

Connections and pedigree are other things going for Talkin. Trainer Danny Gargan won the Belmont (G1) a couple of years ago with Dornoch, while jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is one of the modern greats in the saddle.

Talkin's family tree has also had success in the race. His sire, Good Magic, ran a blinder against Triple Crown winner Justify in the 2018 Preakness, while grandsire Curlin landed the Woodlawn Vase in 2007.

While not entirely sold on Talkin as a win prospect, there are plenty of things to suggest Talkin is potentially capable of outrunning most of these. I'll be using him liberally in my vertical exotics.