Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem for May 15, 2025

A good Thursday to you all! So far it appears that similar to the Kentucky Derby (G1), rain may play a part in the Preakness Stakes (G1) as the forecast calls for rain throughout the week and leading up to Saturday. I was on track for last year’s Preakness and rain wasn’t too much of an issue Friday, but it was front and center on Saturday. With this weekend being the last time they’ll run at Pimlico for a couple seasons, I have to assume they won’t be afraid to run on the grass, especially for the stakes, regardless of how soft it might be from the rain. But we shall see. Last year, I remember the decision to race on turf wasn’t made until just a handful of minutes before post time.

For the third time in the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby winner will not gone on to Pimlico for the second jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. And the race still presents some intrigue with Journalism and Sandman coming back and of course, the famed “new shooters” like Goal Oriented, River Thames, and others. One of the discussions this week I’ve seen a fair bit of is what odds will Journalism go off at and what odds will be fair in the win pool. He’s 8-5 on the morning line and everyone I’ve talked with believes he’s coming down from that number. I kind of figured even money or 6-5, but I’ve seen some people expecting less than even-money. His resume and numbers all make him look like a clear favorite, but it is always an ask coming back in a couple weeks; clearly there must be some question marks, right? But there don’t seem to be many and I think a lot of people are feeling just fine about betting him if he does go off at even-money or better. 

I really struggled finding alternatives to Journalism for the win. I do think trying to beat Sandman again may prove to be a worthwhile endeavor. Surely having less horses and traffic should help him, but I just can’t see him out-gunning Journalism, who should get a nice jump on him. The early story appears to be whether or not Clever Again will get a clear lead early or if Goal Oriented might try and go with him. Goal Oriented is so lightly raced, but the Bob Baffert factor will lead to a lot of optimism from bettors as I think he might actually go off third choice behind Journalism and Sandman. The Rich Strike effect upon the straight betting pools was really severe in the Preakness after his Kentucky Derby upset, but it has also carried over to many of these Triple Crown races. So getting a big price on interesting longshots like American Promise or Gosger may prove impossible with nine horses; the money just doesn’t have that many places to go in order to spread out the odds. 

Gosger looks like the most interesting upside horse who figures to be a decent price. His Lexington (G3) win wasn’t the prettiest, as he was kind of getting in on his left lead throughout much of the stretch. But the way he accelerated when he saw daylight at the top of the stretch and the fact that he’s so lightly raced have me hoping he can make some improvement here. 

Making picks without knowing the final odds is almost always a silly endeavor, but it’s fun too, so here’s my picks for this year's Preakness. Hope everyone has a good weekend!

1. Journalism
2. River Thames
3. Gosger