Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023

October 4th, 2023

Dick Powell offers his selections and analysis for Thursday's card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: (4) CHAOS THEORY – turf sprinter from California showed good speed down the hill two starts back at Santa Anita. He was an even third here in fast time for Tim Girten, who wins 28% second start off the layoff.

2nd: (2) NICK THE CARDSHARK – dirt sprinter makes his Tapeta debut at the age of nine. He was a sharp winner at Penn National two starts back then rallied for second. Erin McClellan wins 15% first start off the claim and 25% with this surface switch.

3rd: (3) GRANDE TORTUGON – beat this claiming level two starts back then weakened last out when used hard from post one.


Race Two:

1st: (4) DIAMONDHARD STONE – was a close third two starts back in a slowish race then was an even fourth against modest winners. Son of Birdstone returns to maiden claimers for Tom Cooper. Ron Allen Jr. rides back.

2nd: (5) BRADY – was soundly beaten in his first four career starts then showed good speed here going two turns against much better company. He drops down in class and should be part of the early pace with Rosario Montanez.

3rd: (3) COMMANDING – moves up in class off two efforts here against bottom maiden claimers.


Race Three:

1st: (6) SUN DADDY – won two races in a row here off the layoff then could only get third when dropped down in class as the odds-on favorite. He was a good second last out at even money against better for Bill Martin, who wins 18% going long.

2nd: (1) COMEDIC TIMING – won an off-the-turf event on a sloppy track at Monmouth in his first start off the claim then raced evenly on the turf. Gelded son of Into Mischief draws the rail for his Tapeta debut with Antonio Gallardo.

3rd: (5) YADI – horse for the course moves up in class off two wins in his last four starts.


Race Four:

1st: (5) MADURAI – was an even third in his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs for Todd Beattie, who wins 32% with his second-time starters. Son of Arrogate stretches out to two turns and draws well with Angel Rodriguez — 28% with his route mounts.

2nd: (6) EXPRESS STAR – has improved in all three career starts, especially the last two going two turns. He has no gate speed but plenty of stamina. Gary Wales wins 10% with his route mounts and can drop back early and save ground.

3rd: (2) RIGHTHERE RIGHTNOW – first-time starter by Not This Time (19% debut winners) draws inside for Mike Stidham.

Race Five:

1st: (5) YANKEE DOLLAR – daughter of California Chrome won her Presque Isle debut here going this mile in fast time then came back with a good second. She’s been running well since then on turf, slop and, fast dirt for Marcus Vitali, who wins 12% with this surface switch.

2nd: (7) PEACE SEEKER – was going nowhere on the turf this year but came here last out and rallied from far back to miss by less than a length against better. She will drop far back early but should be coming hard with Jose Leon.

3rd: (3) WILD DELIGHT – beat open allowance foes going six furlongs then tired last out. She drops in class and stretches out.


Race Six:

1st: (8) COLONEL POPPY broke his maiden here going six furlongs then was a good second in his two-turn debut. He came back with another second last out and should be part of the early pace. Matt Kintz wins 16% going long and shows a flat-bet profit.

2nd: (3) KNIGHT LEGEND – has been up and down the class ladder against open company. He beat solid conditioned claimers last out going this distance and now tries state-bred allowance foes. Tim Girten wins 23% first start after a win.

3rd: (5) SHY DA RUNNER – won two in a row against open company claimers for Tim Girten, who wins 20% on synthetic tracks.


Race Seven:

1st: (3) TOOLCAT – beat this optional claiming level two starts back in fast time then just missed in a slow-paced race. Daughter of Kitten’s Joy has won five times here and draws well with Pablo Morales.

2nd: (6) AZTEC PRINCESS – took her all year to get through her first-level allowance condition. She came from eight lengths behind to win going away as the 8-5 favorite last out. Daughter of Sharp Azteca loses Morales but gets Angel Rodriguez.

3rd: (2) CASCADE PARK – moves up a notch in class but has plenty of gate speed to take advantage of post two.


Race Eight:

1st: (1) VOORHEES – chased the pace two starts back without much success then improved last out with a much better finish. He draws the rail for Tim Hamm, who wins 20% with his synthetic-track starters and 18% with his sprinters.

2nd: (3) JOSH’S HONOR – drops way down in class at the end of the year. He can show high speed but his last start was awful. Thus, the drop from $15K to $6.25K. Mike Rogers wins 16% with his claimers and 14% on synthetic tracks.

3rd: (6) GOVERNOR ATWOOD – only has one win in 17 tries, but he was a terrific second two starts back.