Racing Roundtable: Louisiana Derby (G2), Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), Good Cheer's dominance and more

Final Gambit wins the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Christine Hayden)

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Vance Hanson evaluate the winners of the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1), as well as Good Cheer's unbeaten record coming out of the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

The Steve Asmussen-trained Tiztastic added 100 points to his total on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with his upset in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds over the weekend. The Tiz the Law colt boasts 119 points total at the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, followed by Jeff Ruby Steaks hero Final Gambit, a Brad Cox trainee who won his stakes debut on Saturday and collected 100 points for the feat.

On the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, Cox pupil Good Cheer remained unbeaten in her sixth career start when recording a 3 1/2-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds Oaks. She will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the May 2 Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs and is firmly planted atop the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard with 145 points.

Turfway Park hosted a Kentucky Oaks prep the same day as the Fair Grounds Oaks, and Will Walden-trained Bless the Broken secured a 2 3/4-length victory in the Bourbonette Oaks, a 50-point prep, while beating 10 rivals.

Other stakes action from the weekend came with major surprises as Set-Hut LLC's Touchuponastar went gate to wire in the 1 1/8-mile New Orleans Classic (G2) as a 6.50-1 choice, beating 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone in the process. The Muniz Memorial Classic (G2), one race later, produced an even more shocking result when Idratherbeblessed, at 86-1, held on by a neck when wiring the field in the 1 1/8-mile turf race.

INDEX

Racing Roundtable | Fair Grounds LIVE Chat | Fair Grounds LIVE Blog | Trackside Coverage

BET LIVE HORSE RACING HERE!

Discover our LIVE CHAT from Friday discussing Saturday prep races and more!

top of page

Welcome to our EXCLUSIVE LIVE chat!

Ask a question

Sort by:

Latest

Oldest

3/21/2025, 10:05:34 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Thank you one and all!

Thank you to everyone that joined us and our panel of experts.

We will be hosting a live blog tomorrow to give you up to date news and notes to keep you posted on tomorrow's key races.

Our live blog begins at 2:30 PM, come check in for promotions, expert picks, analysis, live trackside coverage, and more! Feel like you're on the track without ever leaving your home.

See you all tomorrow at 2:30 PM and happy racing!

Expert Pick

Analysis

All Access

Keeler Johnson

March 21

Enjoy the great racing, everyone!

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:58:20 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Who do you choose?

Knowing it will change between now and then, and only meant for bragging rights if you're actually right, who would pick as the Kentucky Derby winner if you had to choose right now? Who is the strongest contender right now?

Expert Pick

All Access

Vance Hanson

March 21

Right now, Sovereignty would be the value play for me over Journalism and Citizen Bull. But I'll be interested to see how Captain Cook performs in the Wood Memorial (G2) two weeks from now for Rick Dutrow, who trained 2008 Derby winner Big Brown.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

Journalism! The Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner was awesome in his first start of 2025, rallying to beat previous Kentucky Derby favorite Barnes in the San Felipe (G2). Journalism ran fast on the clock and has upside for improvement with his two-prep approach to the Kentucky Derby, so I'm feeling optimistic that this is the year Curlin finally sires a Kentucky Derby winner. He's previously sired runners-up Exaggerator (2016) and Good Magic (2018).

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Journalism was my no. 1 over the winter, even before the San Felipe, so I'm not deserting him now just because the bandwagon is filling up!

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:52:17 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Let's hop on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks!

What is everyone's thoughts on the Bourbonette Oaks and the Fair Grounds Oaks?

All Access

Vance Hanson

March 21

Good Cheer is the most likely winner of the FG Oaks, but shouldn't be as low as 1-20 as she was in the Rachel Alexandra. There's some decent fillies in this group, most of whom will probably hit their best stride beyond the Kentucky Oaks. I'd say Good Cheer wins as a 2-5 chance.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

The Fair Grounds Oaks is all about the undefeated #7 Good Cheer (4-5). She's unbeaten in five starts, including wins in the Rags to Riches S., Golden Rod (G2), and Rachel Alexandra (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. If there's a chink in her armor, it's the fact she rode a favorable rail in the Rachel Alexandra. But she trounced that race by 6 1/4 lengths, and her juvenile form is still the best in the Fair Grounds Oaks field, so I anticipate she'll win again. For second place, respect the Louisiana-bred sensation #8 Secret Faith (6-1), who is a head away from being undefeated in eight starts.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

With #7 Good Cheer the utterly dominant force in the FG Oaks, perhaps we can find value underneath in the form of #9 Quickick (10-1), who twice placed to divisional champion Immersive last season. The Tom Amoss filly surely needed her comeback fifth in the Honeybee, and I suspect we'll see a stronger effort here.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

As for the Bourbonette Oaks... wow, what a race! The full field looks highly competitive. I would give #5 Bless the Broken (10-1) a long look. She ran against the grain of a rail bias when third to Good Cheer in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) last month. Dirt form often translates well to the Tapeta track at Turfway, and trainer William Walden wins at a 20% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic, so Bless the Broken appears overpriced at her 10-1 morning-line odds. The presence of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez adds to the appeal.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Agree that the Bourbonette Oaks is a handicapping puzzle indeed! I'm drawn to #7 As Catch Can (6-1), a long-legged Mo Town filly who's probably just beginning to develop for Jonathan Thomas. The Mazarine near-misser warmed up with an excellent, staying-on second in the Sweet Life on Santa Anita's downhill turf, and she wants to route.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

Kellie, I agree, Quickick is worth considering at a price. She misfired in the Honeybee, but if she bounces back to her juvenile form—which produced top-three finishes against champion Immersive in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Alcibiades (G1)—she can factor in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:46:27 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Who is your choice?

Post time for the Jeff Ruby Steaks is 6:25 PM EST. What are your best bets for the race?

Vance Hanson

March 21

With blinkers on and, hopefully, a stronger pace to chase, I'll lean to Baby Max.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

My top choice to win the Jeff Ruby is #10 Maximum Promise (5-1). After finishing fifth against a good field in the Lecomte (G3) on dirt, he switched to the Turfway Tapeta for the John Battaglia Memorial and finished third. The Battaglia unfolded with slow fractions of :24.50, :49.41, and 1:14.03 favorable to the frontrunning winner #3 California Burrito and the pace-tracking #6 Baby Max, who finished second. Maximum Promise closed from 10th place after a troubled start and was the only horse to make up meaningful ground. There's more speed entered in the Jeff Ruby, and a hot pace may allow Maximum Promise to surprise.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:41:15 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Could a Derby contender be among them?

Is that a race horse enthusiasts should pay close attention to? Could the next Derby winner be in the field?

Horse

All Access

Keeler Johnson

March 21

The Jeff Ruby is a race on the rise. Since becoming a top-tier Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 100 points to the winner, it's produced 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and 2023 runner-up Two Phil's. The purse has also increased sharply, from $250,000 in 2021 to $777,000 for 2025. The stage is set for the Jeff Ruby to continue producing serious Kentucky Derby contenders, with Poster perhaps the most likely to factor from this year's field.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Agree that Poster would be the most logical Kentucky Derby player to emerge from this race. Given the surface variable, we'll probably see a few promising types revert to turf.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:35:21 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Let's talk longshots!

There are few longshots in the field that would give you a decent payout if they manage to cross the finish line first.

Are there any longshots that catch your eye in the Jeff Ruby Steaks?

When the payout for that longshot comes through:

Horse

All Access

Expert Pick

Vance Hanson

March 21

Baby Max isn't so much of a longshot, but he's been running well at Turfway all winter and certainly hasn't been helped by slow paces in his last two starts. Another horse I'd keep an eye on is Flying Mohawk, who enters off back-to-back wins on the grass for Whit Beckman. His one previous try in stakes company he attempted to lull his rivals to sleep in the Pilgrim (G2), but he's proven more effective as an off-the-pace type. If he gets some pace to chase and handles the surface switch, he could be an interesting price play.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

Among horses listed at double-digit odds on the morning line, I feel #12 He's Not Joking (15-1) is worth a look. He cracked the trifecta in all four of his starts on Tapeta at Woodbine last year, most notably trouncing the 1 1/16-mile Grey (G3) by four lengths. Two subsequent misfires on dirt have muddied his form, but returning to Tapeta may allow He's Not Joking to rebound for hot trainer Josie Carroll, who wins at a 36% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

This race could offer a bit of chaos, and #5 Flying Mohawk (15-1) is flying under the radar for Whit Beckman. It's a signal whenever a horse can win by 5 1/2 lengths on turf as he did at CD last fall, and he returned triumphant at FG. By the underrated sire Karakontie and out of a Twirling Candy mare, he figures to handle Tapeta.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Note that #7 Giocoso (30-1) is more consistent on turf than dirt, implying he could bring his A game to Tapeta for Keith Desormeaux. His third in the Iroquois implies that he fits on class. #1 Calling Card (20-1) has been going the wrong way, but trainer Mike Maker has won this race 6 times. Maybe we should take note of his perseverance with this underachiever.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:30:37 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Is the Jeff Ruby favorite your best bet?

Let's make a shift to the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

How do you all feel about the current morning line favorite, Poster at 3-1?

He is definitely a strong contender, with three wins from his four lifetime starts. While placing third in the Sam F. Davis to John Hancock (1st) and Owen Almighty (2), his first place win in the Remsen Stakes put him on the point board for the 151st Kentucky Derby. This one could solidify his place amongst the field.

All Access

Horse

Vance Hanson

March 21

Poster deserves respect, especially if you believe he can transfer his fine turf form to the synthetic Tapeta surface. However, he simply won't offer any betting value in a race with a large field, many of whom with experience over the surface.

Jennifer Kelly

March 21

I'm looking forward to seeing Poster tackle this race. I find the Remsen to be a productive two-year-old stakes and his turn in the Sam F. Davis shows me that probably needed a race after an eight-week layoff. In this second start off the layoff, I'm counting on him being right there in contention.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Poster is the class of the field, and the race should set up well for him. The only potential question for me is if he's still building up in this second start off the layoff. I suspect he can improve again going into his main goal, the Kentucky Derby.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

Poster is a tricky horse to analyze since he’s never raced over a synthetic track like the Tapeta surface at Turfway. On the bright side, all but one of his timed workouts dating back to last May have come at Turfway. It’s encouraging to note Poster has won on both turf and dirt, showing versatility. He was a determined winner of the Remsen (G2) last fall and opened 2024 with a rallying third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis, a deep race in which Louisiana Derby (G2) favorite John Hancock and next-out Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty ran 1-2. I believe Poster has a strong chance to finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks top three, though there are others with strong win credentials too.

Keeler Johnson

March 21

It's worth noting Poster missed a bit of training during the winter, due to poor weather at Turfway Park. The Sam F. Davis wasn't his original target to start the year, and he likely wasn't fully fit for his first start back. I anticipate he'll move forward in his second run of the season.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

Keeler, totally agree that Poster's comeback effort to close at Tampa - in a race that was dominated by classy pace factors - warrants considerable respect.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:26:59 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Who's your expert pick?

Who is your money on to win the Louisiana Derby and those 100 points up for grabs?

Expert Pick

All Access

Keeler Johnson

March 21

1st: #6 Built, who ran well against a track bias and hot pace when third in the Risen Star. 2nd: #1 John Hancock, who beat a deep field in the Sam F. Davis. 3rd: #7 Vassimo, who is adding blinkers after seemingly struggling in traffic when fourth in the Risen Star.

Vance Hanson

March 21

As I noted in an earlier comment, I'll back Instant Replay to spring a mild upset. He's possibly figuring things out at the right time after an even start to his career, which included a couple appearances in six-figure maiden claiming races. But his sire, Maximum Security, was entered for a tag, too, and wound up being champion three-year-old.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

If John Hancock is as vulnerable as we suppose, this looks like an open renewal, and I'll take a stab at Hypnus to spring the upset with Caldera as a second choice.

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:26:23 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Here are some great statistics on the Louisiana Derby!

Check out this article! It goes through a lot of the statics of how productive the Louisiana Derby could be.

Kentucky Derby preps: How productive is the Louisiana Derby?

Comment

3/21/2025, 9:18:44 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Could there be a Derby contender among them?

What implications could this race carry for the Kentucky Derby? Could the 151st Kentucky Derby winner be among them?

Keeler Johnson

March 21

The Louisiana Derby is rising in prominence and has produced two Kentucky Derby winners since 2019. There's a lot of talent and potential in this year's field, and I won't be surprised if the Louisiana Derby yields a top-three finisher on the first Saturday in May.

Kellie Reilly

March 21

The 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby will help to gauge stamina, and the field arguably offers more strength in depth than the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway.

Comment

Check our LIVE Blog covering Fair Grounds action this past weekend!

top of page

Welcome to Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks Day!

Sort by:

Latest

Oldest

3/22/2025, 11:01:03 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Thank you to one and all!

Thank you to everyone that joined us for the our LIVE coverage of the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Louisiana Derby. Join us again as we continue to travel along the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.

Don't forget to join us during Derby week, which is a little over a month away, to get up to date information the whole weekend!

All Access

3/22/2025, 10:57:11 PM

TwinSpires Staff

2025 G2 TwinSpires Louisiana Derby Full Race Replay - Tiztastic

Tiztastic grabs 100 points to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the G2 TwinSpires Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds! Steve Asmussen trains and Joel Rosario was aboard.

Race Replay

3/22/2025, 10:55:56 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Tiztastic takes the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds!

3/22/2025, 10:49:03 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Fair Grounds Entries along the Road to the Kentucky Derby

The time has come for yet another 100 point race along the Road to the Kentucky Derby with the 2025 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Take a look at these LIVE odds before placing your best bets as the excitement builds.

3/22/2025, 10:48:55 PM

TwinSpires Staff

Luis Saez on Good Cheer

Ashley Anderson catches Luis Saez on his way back to the jocks room after another win with Good Cheer, this time in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks.