Racing Roundtable: Thorpedo Anna and Pennsylvania Derby

This week, the Racing Roundtable talks about Thorpedo Anna's Horse of the Year chances, recaps the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), and what else caught their eye over the weekend.

Should Thorpedo Anna be Horse of the Year if she wins the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1)?

James Scully: She will need some help. Fierceness and Dornoch are multiple Grade 1 winners this year, recording important wins in the Travers (G1) and Belmont (G1), respectively, and Thorpedo Anna won’t back into Horse of the Year honors if either of those colts win the Classic (G1). She’s good enough to win the Classic, overcoming a tough trip on a slow rail to record a fast-closing head second to possible Classic favorite Fierceness in the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), but Thorpedo Anna won’t control her Horse of the Year destiny by taking the easier route.

Vance Hanson: There will undoubtedly be a vocal wave of support among racing media and fandom for Thorpedo Anna to be voted Horse of the Year if she were to win the Distaff. That doesn't mean, however, she would be the best, most qualified candidate. Although she ran a remarkable race to narrowly lose the Travers, at the end of the day it was still a loss. Even assuming she wins the Distaff, Thorpedo Anna would not have come close to transcending her division this season in the manner of, say, Rachel Alexandra.

In my opinion, the standards for earning Horse of the Year honors haven't so much evolved as they've been watered down over the past 25-30 years. That's not to say most of the Horse of the Year selections since have not been worthy — a vast majority have — but some of the more competitive races have descended into popularity contests while black-and-white results witnessed on the racetrack have been completely ignored. Once the Eclipse Award electorate of 1997 honored as Horse of the Year Favorite Trick, a two-year-old colt who had a good season but was unable to race outside his division in a vintage year for both older males and three-year-old colts, the barn door was left wide open for other questionable choices to be made later.

Thorpedo Anna has already earned her three-year-old filly title, but I have no expectation of writing her name in for Horse of the Year regardless of the results of Breeders' Cup weekend.

What are your takeaways from the Pennsylvania Derby (G1)?

JS: Seize the Grey will be setting the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Following a flat fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2), D. Wayne Lukas made a wise move to skip the Travers (G1) and freshen his charge, and Seize the Grey controlled the pace on a short lead before drawing off to a 3 3/4-length decision. A gate-to-wire winner of the Preakness (G1), Seize the Grey will face a class hike in the Classic, and his only chance for an upset will come on the front end. 

VH: The Pennsylvania Derby was formful enough from a betting perspective, but you have to wonder how different the result might have been on a track that wasn't so deep and tiring, or if Seize the Grey had had to work harder on the front end. 

It was certainly a nice bounce-back performance for the Preakness (G1) winner after a dull summer at Saratoga, but I emphatically disagree with those who think Seize the Grey put himself back into the discussion for division honors. It was too slow a performance to suggest he can back it up in either the Breeders' Cup Classic or Dirt Mile, nor does it offset the severity of his losses in races like the Blue Grass (G1), Belmont (G1), and Jim Dandy (G2) against the more talented members of the crop.

What else caught your eye over the weekend?

JS: After giving way readily over the inside part of the track in the Travers, Batten Down bounced back stylishly in Saturday’s Bourbon S. at Churchill Downs, registering a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating and establishing a new track record for the 5 3/4-length decision. Batten Down gives further credence to the suggestion that the rail wasn’t good at Saratoga on Aug. 24. Thorpedo Anna ran huge in the Travers despite traveling most of the way over the worst part of the track, and it was easy to appreciate her class in Saturday’s Cotillion (G1), gutting out a narrow win despite not being at her best.

Sacrosanct appears poised to join the Kentucky Derby trail following a 12-length romp in Sunday’s Bertram F. Bongard S. for New York-breds at Aqueduct. By freshman sire Honest Mischief, a son of Into Mischief out of a Seattle Slew mare, Sacrosanct improved to 2-for-2 for Brad Cox, winning a restricted maiden at Saratoga by open lengths, and he registered a career-high 95 Speed rating for the easy win Sunday. The bay colt looks very promising.

Next kept rolling in Saturday’s 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup (G3), scoring by 10 lengths, and connections appear willing to try either the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles or Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at 1 1/2 miles. The six-year-old gelding has recorded seven consecutive wins at distances from 1 3/8 miles to 1 3/4 miles and given that his fastest performance came in the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2) this summer, netting a 109 Brisnet Speed rating, the eighth of a mile cutback for the Classic seems well within Next’s scope.

But trainer Dougie Cowans didn't sound keen to cut back after the Greenwood Cup.

“But going to the dirt at a mile and a quarter, I worry about the pace scenario that the horse will get into,” Cowans said. “I mean you can even see that (Saturday) he was tugging in the bridle. You put up a 23 or 46, and he'll get to tugging on you pretty good. I don’t know where that leaves him if he jumps off to quick lead. They struggle getting him off the pace.”

After settling in second behind moderate paces in all four starts this year, Next has practically no chance to outgun Seize the Grey to the front in the Classic, and speedy rivals Dornoch and Fierceness will also make it easy for Luan Machado to avoid falling into an early lead by default. But there’s no point debating pace or distance if connections don’t want to try the Classic.

Next hasn’t raced on turf since finishing fourth in an optional claiming race at Ellis Park in 2022 — he loves dirt tracks — but the Turf appears to be a serious option if he makes it to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup.

VH: Rebel's Romance, the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner, is back in the mix for that race after winning the Preis von Europa (G1) at Cologne on Sunday. Although the Preis von Europa normally showcases horses not quite ready for prime time in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) in early October, it was supposed to have added intrigue this past weekend as a stopping point for Goliath, the impressive King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) winner who as a gelding was ineligible to compete in the Arc. Goliath suffered a minor physical setback, however, and did not start. 

Rebel's Romance perhaps didn't win as a 3-5 favorite should have, but connections noted the slow pace made things a little more difficult for him. Nonetheless, Rebel's Romance will deserve respect at Del Mar having used the Preis von Europa as his stepping stone to success at Keeneland two years ago. Rebel's Romance had an off year in 2023, but is back to his best form this term with Group 1 wins in Dubai, Hong Kong, and Germany. His only loss this season was a distant third to Goliath in the King George, and the form of that race has held up since.

No horse has won the Breeders' Cup Turf twice in non-consecutive years, but Rebel's Romance might have a chance with most of Europe's leading lights pointing to other races and the American division being what it often is.