Recent trends in the Louisiana Derby

March 23rd, 2022

Saturday's $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds is the more prestigious of the two Road to the Kentucky Derby preps scheduled this weekend. Here are three trends since 2010 worth noting about the race.

Prior stakes success not crucial

In the 12 editions of the Louisiana Derby since 2010, seven of the winners were recording their first career stakes victory in Fair Grounds' signature event. This includes the last four winners: Hot Rod Charlie (2021), Wells Bayou (2020), By My Standards (2019), and Noble Indy (2018).

Inside post positions favorable

Post Positions 1 through 3 have accounted for half of the 12 winners of the Louisiana Derby since 2010. Posts 5 and 6 have yielded an additional three winners.

Even with a long run to the first turn and in the final quarter-mile, it's better to be drawn closer to the rail of late.

Longer-priced favorites are better than shorter-price ones

Post-time favorites in the Louisiana Derby that started at less than 2-1 are just 1-for-6 in the last 12 years. That winner was Girvin (2017), who started at 13-10.

In contrast, favorites that started at 2-1 or higher are 4-for-6 in the Louisiana Derby since 2010. Among those winning "lukewarm" favorites were Revolutionary ($6.80, 2013), International Star ($6.60, 2015), Noble Indy ($7.40, 2018), and Wells Bayou ($8.40, 2020).