Royal Ascot 2025: Selections for Thursday

Day 3 of Royal Ascot has as its traditional centerpiece the Gold Cup (G1) over 2 1/2 miles, and it's also the card where I'll resume my bankroll plays for the 2025 British flat season.

After Pride of Arras' dull showing in the Derby (G1) at Epsom earlier this month, the bankroll balance stands at $491.50 from an original starting point of $500. I will place win wagers equal to 5% of the outstanding balance on the top selections for the following four races, as well as the four races I'll cover on Friday's program. The first play on Thursday will be for $25.

Race 1: Norfolk (G2), 9:30 a.m. ET

No favorite has won this race since 2008, an extraordinarily long drought for any stakes. The public choice here will be short-priced, and results in recent years suggest almost anything can happen. So why not try to beat him?

France sends an intriguing representative in #1 Afjan (7-1), who uncorked an impressive late kick from the rear of the field to land his debut at Chantilly going away by more than a length. That kind of burst could make him a serious threat in the latter stages of this five-furlong dash, that is, if the cutback from 5 1/2 isn't too drastic.

Also worth noting is his sire and dam both placed in Royal Ascot features, the Coventry (G2) and Queen Mary (G2), respectively.

#3 Charles Darwin (8-5) is the horse to beat after winning his last two in comfortable style for the Coolmore team in Ireland. However, trainer Aidan O'Brien has won this only three times in the last 24 years despite starting numerous short-priced contenders.

The connections of #13 Naval Light (3-1) captured this race a year ago with Shareholder, who actually won the Beverley maiden that this colt finished second in on debut after a slow start. This colt has significant upside, but is forecast to be a fraction of the price that Shareholder was 12 months ago.

Longer shots to consider for underneath are #7 First Legion (12-1) and #9 Hey Tru Blue (20-1). The U.S. will be represented by #14 Sandal's Song (8-1), who won the Royal Palm Juvenile at Gulfstream for trainer George Weaver.

Race 3: Ribblesdale (G2), 10:40 a.m. ET

Coolmore dominated the Oaks (G1) at Epsom earlier this month when Minnie Hauk and Whirl were separated by a neck while several lengths clear of the rest. Coolmore has dominated this three-year-old filly fixture in recent years, too, but I think the ones to look more closely at are those with recent company lines that include Minnie Hauk and Whirl.

Although she showed relatively little at two, #1 Caspi Star (10-1) has progressed quite a bit since. She was much the best on her return to the grass in a relatively lucrative maiden open to males at Musselburgh in April, and then ran credibly in the Cheshire Oaks to finish third, beaten 2 1/4 lengths, by the now classic-winning Minnie Hauk. If she improves from that run, she can contend at a square price.

#10 Serenity Prayer (3-1) was a distant second to Whirl in the Musidora (G3) at York in what was only her second career start, which followed a solid debut win over 1 1/4 miles at Newbury. She only just bested #5 Go Go Boots for the place in the Musidora, though, and that rival was subsequently well beaten in the Oaks. She remains with tremendous upside as she's by Dubawi and out of a full sister to dual classic winner Love.

#2 Catalina Delcarpio (5-2) has caught the eye from a pair of starts in Ireland over 10 furlongs. She won for fun on debut at Leopardstown and was second best in the Salsabil (G3) at Navan after lacking room in upper stretch. Better likely on the way.

While it wouldn't be a surprise if any of Coolmore's trio made an impact (#4 Garden of Eden [6-1] in particular), all are more exposed than the stable's recent Ribblesdale winners.

Race 4: Gold Cup (G1), 11:20 a.m. ET

The centerpiece of every Royal meeting, this 2 1/2-mile marathon has not always been the best of wagering opportunities for win bettors, as post-time favorites have won nine of the 14 renewals since the TwinSpires crew began covering Royal Ascot in 2011.

#6 Trawlerman (3-1) was my choice in last year's Gold Cup, when he put up a brave fight to finish only a length behind two-time winner Kyprios. That remarkable stayer would have been a strong favorite to secure a third win here if not for recent career-ending infirmities.

Trawlerman didn't run again until British Champions Day in October, when he finished a tiring third to Kyprios, and then turned in his obligatory (and again unsuccessful) winter appearance in Dubai. But his final prep for this, last month's Henry II (G3) at Sandown, was a tour de force, albeit against only three rivals while on a loose lead. Nonetheless, he's more or less proven over this trip and figures to be difficult to catch in these conditions.

Coolmore has dominated this race over the years, and Kyprios' substitute, #8 Illinois (3-2), might eventually prove to be cut from the same cloth. He's been a gem of consistency with a 10-4-4-2 record, and has been battle tested against the likes of Jan Brueghel, Los Angeles, and Sosie over middle distances.

Winner of the Queens Vase (G2) at this stand last year and more recently triumphant in the Prix Chaudenay (G2) and Ormonde (G3), Illinois is likely to stay even farther, but note he actually hasn't been tried beyond 1 7/8 miles yet. At the prices, I'll try and beat him.

#3 Sweet William (6-1), stablemate to Trawlerman in the Gosden yard, has never finished out of the money in 16 starts. However, the 2024 Gold Cup third has more than twice as many placings as wins and would probably appreciate a bit more cut in the ground.

Once-beaten #7 Candelari (7-2) just won France's premier springtime staying event, the newly upgraded Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (G1), rather easily over that race's defending titlist. How that form stacks up against the British and Irish division can only be guessed, and he'll have much quicker ground conditions to negotiate while stepping well up in trip.

Race 6: Hampton Court (G3), 12:35 p.m. ET

Punters worldwide are likely to focus on the class droppers #3 Detain and #14 Trinity College, both of whom missed by less than a length in the Prix du Jockey-Club (G1) earlier this month after being one-paced late. However, fresher faces might make an impact at better odds.

#8 Jackknife (7-1), a Kameko half-brother to Royal Ascot winner Defoe, proved agile enough to win on debut over Epsom's notoriously tricky course back on April 20. His stakes debut in the Heron S. at Sandown was better than it looked as he finished up well in the final stages after lacking room a couple of furlongs out.

Both previous starts were at or around a mile, and Jackknife is sure to appreciate the step up to 1 1/4 miles here. Whether he's good enough remains to be seen, but at the price, he's worth a look.

The beautifully bred #13 Tornado Alert (10-1), a Too Darn Hot colt from the family of Master of the Seas, was not embarrassed when fourth in the 2000 Guineas (G1) and sixth in the Derby (G1) at Epsom. This is a significant class drop for him, too, but I wonder whether 1 1/4 miles might still be a bit farther than he wants to go.

#9 Reyenzi (15-1) sports the colors of the late Aga Khan and will be seeking some redemption after being demoted from first to third in the Gallinule (G3) at the Curragh last time due to late interference against #4 Emit. He can outrun expectations if able to maintain a straighter course.

#2 Arabian Force (15-1) and #7 High Stock (9-2) are others to consider off their recent efforts in what is a fascinating betting race on paper.