Royal Ascot: Handicapping Tuesday's packed fields

This year’s Royal Ascot meet kicks off in earnest Tuesday morning, with a first post time of 9:30 a.m. ET. I’m going to provide something a bit different from other content, as, rather than focusing primarily on the Group 1 races, my focus will mostly be on handicap events.

These races draw massive fields (Tuesday’s handicap race in question has a field of 20), and they can provide great value if you connect with a strong opinion. If that’s not your speed, I’ll have a bonus play for elsewhere on the program down below, but first…

Race 5: 12 p.m. ET

That aforementioned field of 20 will go the marathon distance of about 2 1/2 miles (or 4,000 meters in British parlance). #15 REACHING HIGH (7/2) is your morning line favorite, and given the presence of all-world jockey Ryan Moore, that isn’t surprising. However, the one I want is the one just above him in the program.

#14 ALPHONSE LE GRANDE (20-1) almost certainly needed his last-out clunker, so I have no problem at all drawing a line through that race. It was his first outing since October, so it isn’t surprising that he wasn’t competitive. His 2024 campaign was a pretty good one, as he won four of seven starts over a variety of surfaces. He crossed the wire first over firm turf, soft turf, and synthetic, at distances from two to 2 3/8 miles.

That “needing a race” opinion has precedent, too. Late last year, Alphonse Le Grande came off the bench at The Curragh and finished eighth in that event before hitting the line first at Newmarket a few weeks later (though he was disqualified). This feels like a case where the connections worked backward and used the May 25th effort as a prep. I love seeing smart teams of horsepeople do this, and I’m expecting a step forward second up at a price.

Reaching High, meanwhile, significantly stretches out in distance. His pedigree says he may take to it, but at his likely price, I cannot use him on top. I like him third behind #8 MANXMAN (10-1), a consistent sort with seven wins and 13 top-three finishes in 16 outings. He goes third off the bench for Simon and Ed Crisford, and his usual effort likely gives him a chance.

Race 1: 9:30 a.m. ET

My bonus play for the day comes in the lid-lifter. This is the Group 1 Queen Anne, and it features a few familiar faces. I’m not quite sure we’ll get the morning line price on my top pick, but if we do, it hits me as an overlay.

#4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (15-1) hasn’t been seen since September, but he got quite good once Aidan O’Brien cut him back in distance. Simply put, he’s a miler through and through, and I was excited to play him in a few planned North American spots last year. A trip never materialized, though, and this will be his first race in more than nine months.

If he’s ready and runs to his best form, however, he’s got a big chance in here. Furthermore, I think one could make the case he’s sitting on a career-best effort. Aidan O’Brien is one of the best trainers in the game with older turf horses, and I don’t think he’d be here, in his first start since September, just to fill the field. Given the connections involved, I feel like he gets bet down a bit, but anything over 10-1 would hit me as fair.

One more note: #2 CARL SPACKLER (20-1) makes his debut for new connections here, but I’m not sold on him. European turf runners are of a different class than the ones he beat up on in the U.S., and one of Tuesday’s rivals, #8 NOTABLE SPEECH (5-1), beat him in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) back in November. It’d be cool if he won, but I’m against him in the first of many top-tier races from Royal Ascot this week.