Royal Ascot Spot Plays for Thursday

We move on to Thursday’s action at Royal Ascot, and we’ve got two highly-competitive handicap races to pick from. I went with the fifth, which has attracted 33 3-year-olds to go 1,600 meters (or one mile). Of those, 30 can go postward, with three also-eligibles waiting in the wings.

I found this race fascinating, and here’s how I’ll play it.

Race #5: 12 pm Eastern

I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on my top pick, because the more I look at #23 THE FINGAL RAVEN (15-1), the more I like him. It’s true that he was winless in three Dubai starts, but he lined up against some very nice horses. Ruling Court, who beat him last time out, won again before finishing third against Group 1 foes earlier this week, and his two-back effort also featured the classy Al Qudra, who went on to take the Group 2 Al Rayyan Mile.

It’s Royal Ascot, so you know the field is going to be salty, but this group feels like a step down in class for the Jamie Osborne charge. If he’s ready to go off a bit of a break, he hits me as the one to beat.

My second choice is #16 GOD OF WAR (15-1), who nearly won his 3-year-old debut last month off of a layoff of more than six months. We hadn’t seen this gelding since a failed try against Group 2 foes at Newbury last October, but he came back and was beaten just a neck going slightly shorter at Chester.

Draw a line through that two-back clunker, and you’ve got a horse that hasn’t done a great deal wrong. Maybe the waters were just a bit too deep, maybe he didn’t care for the heavy going he got that day, and maybe something happened that spurred the long layoff. I think excuses abound for this Tom Clover trainee, and he gets some weight from many of his rivals in this spot. Any sort of step forward second off the bench would make him a major player.

I’ll get a bit crazy with my third choice, as I think #4 SUPIDO (50-1) isn’t without a shot, either. His effort last time out doubled as his first start since August, and he showed an affinity for this distance when he won going a mile in his native France three back. He was beaten just a length last time out despite a strange trip, and a move forward could be expected here at a big number.

Race #4: 11:20 am Eastern

This is the Group 1 Gold Cup, where stayers will go the marathon distance of 4,000 meters (or roughly 2 1/2 miles). That distance is a key reason why I’m against heavy morning line choice #8 ILLINOIS (3/2). He’s a consistent sort that’s run well for powerhouse connections, but he’s also yet to run two miles, let alone this route. Maybe he’s just too good and that doesn’t matter, but at his likely price, I can’t back him.

I much prefer #4 TRAWLERMAN (3-1), who chased Kyprios home when second in the 2024 renewal of this race. His win prepping for this at Sandown was sensational, as he won by five lengths in front-running fashion. He’s hit the board in four of five local starts, he’s proven to like this distance…and he may be double the price of a morning line choice I find vulnerable? Sign me up.

At a bigger price, I’ll also have a piece of #2 DUBAI FUTURE (30-1), who won a pair of events for stayers this past season at Meydan. One of those wins came in the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup going two miles, and I just don’t think he cared for the soft going last time out at Longchamp. A bounce-back effort may mean he crashes the exotics at a big price.