Royal Ascot 2025: Selections for Saturday

An international cast of sprinters assembles for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1), the feature on Saturday’s closing day at Royal Ascot.

Also on the card, Godolphin globetrotter Rebel’s Romance might have his hands full in the Hardwicke (G2), the Jersey (G3) has come up competitive as ever, and the opening Chesham S. could provide the stage for another star juvenile.

Race 1, 9:30 a.m. ET: Chesham S.

Top three:

#5 Treanmor
#4 Thesecretadversary
#8 Moments of Joy

Godolphin’s #5 Treanmor (4-5) smacks of an underlay on the morning line, especially considering that trainer Charlie Appleby has not won at Royal Ascot since 2022. But he might be a more palatable price by post time. The market is moving to back Aidan O’Brien’s filly #8 Moments of Joy (5-2), who at one point was shading him for favoritism. That’s a totally logical shift, given how well the Ballydoyle juveniles have performed this week. 

Yet it might be worth sticking with Treanmor. The €2 million sale-topper at Goffs Orby as a yearling, the son of Frankel and the multiple Group 3-placed stakes winner Loch Lein, coasted in his unveiling over six furlongs at Newmarket. 

Appleby immediately revealed that he’d been thinking about the seven-furlong Chesham rather than Tuesday’s Coventry (G2) for his Royal Ascot target. Aside from the distance suiting him well, Treanmor will have a smaller field and a less pressurized experience here, making for a gentler second start than the Coventry would have been. That gives him the best chance to get his yard back in the Royal meeting win column. 

#4 Thesecretadversary (10-1) strikes me as the value play, thanks to his bang-up second to the O’Brien-trained Italy at Leopardstown. The Fozzy Stack pupil showed good speed to spurt clear before getting collared late in the seven-furlong test. From the first crop of Coolmore’s European champion St Mark’s Basilica, Thesecretadversary is out of the stakes-winning Too Soon to Panic, who Stack also trained. 

Moments of Joy is the only entrant who’s won in the vicinity of this distance. Moreover, the Justify filly captured the same Leopardstown maiden that launched two of O’Brien’s Chesham heroines, September (2017) and Bedtime Story (2024). Like Bedtime Story, Moments of Joy was rated as the yard’s second-stringer on debut, but overturned the rankings on the day. Moments of Joy has a right to improve, just as Bedtime Story took a quantum leap forward to rout the boys here last year. Still, I’m not sure if her contracting price is an overcorrection due to the reflected glory of her stablemates. 

Recent Wathnan Racing recruit #2 Humidity (5-1) is a full brother to 2022 Chesham upsetter Holloway Boy, who sprang a 40-1 surprise in his career debut in this race. Humidity has the advantage of a race under his belt already, a front-running score at Newbury where he gamely prevailed in a photo. 

#9 Venetian Lace (20-1) powered home to take her premiere over the Chelmsford Polytrack, and her pedigree points to improvement at this trip. By Derby (G1) hero Masar, she’s out of a daughter of multiple Grade/Group 1 winner Just the Judge. #6 Waterford Castle (20-1), a wide-trip third to Godolphin’s promising Saba Desert in his debut, interestingly wheels back on short rest for Ralph Beckett.

Race 2, 10:05 a.m. ET: Hardwicke (G2)

Top three:

#2 Al Riffa
#7 Ghostwriter
#9 Rebel’s Romance

The Hardwicke hinges on whether #9 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) turns up with his A game. My suspicion is that the two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) star could be vulnerable. 

After Godolphin’s international warrior was only fourth in his title defense in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), Appleby decided to try him over 1 3/4 miles in the Yorkshire Cup (G2). It was a shade too far for him, but Rebel’s Romance summoned his reserves of class to eke it out by a head from #6 Epic Poet (15-1). Even though he reverts to his 1 1/2-mile trip here, that May 16 tussle may have left its mark.

If so, several of his rivals have claims. #2 Al Riffa (5-1) and #7 Ghostwriter (6-1) hold the most interest, although each has a question of his own. Al Riffa’s stamina is proven, but might he find the ground firmer than ideal? Ghostwriter has course form on good-to-firm, but arrives as an unknown quantity at the trip.

I’ll make Al Riffa the top selection because he crushed last summer’s Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1) in his first (and so far only) career attempt at the distance on good ground. I won’t hold his flop in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) against him, given his hopeless trip, and this is his first opportunity at 1 1/2 miles since. A Group 1-winning juvenile for Joseph O’Brien, the son of Wootton Bassett, has continued to perform up to a high standard in ensuing years. The addition of blinkers could galvanize him, and stable rider Dylan Browne McMonagle gets the best from him.

Ghostwriter, a spectacular $2.7 million purchase by Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing on Monday, can begin repayment promptly if he stays the distance. The Clive Cox trainee has mixed it up consistently at the top level for the past year, in a pair of classics and in majors versus elders. Notably third to City of Troy and Al Riffa in the Eclipse (G1), he was third again in City of Troy’s course-record Juddmonte International (G1). 

Ghostwriter tried cutting back in trip for his comeback in the Dubai Turf (G1), where he finished a respectable fourth to Soul Rush and Romantic Warrior. After a slightly troubled sixth in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1), he stretches out to 1 1/2 miles for the first time on Saturday. Sire Invincible Spirit is a classy speed influence, but Ghostwriter stands to inherit stamina from his dam, the Champs Elysees mare Moorside, who placed in the 2016 Cheshire Oaks.

#1 Al Aasy’s (8-1) requirement to be anchored at the back and deployed as late as possible makes him hostage to fortune. #3 Bellum Justum (20-1) will be much happier back on a quick surface. Epic Poet has progressed since stepping up to the staying ranks, as illustrated by his near-miss to Rebel’s Romance at York, and it will be curious to see if he maintains that level on the cutback. He does have course-and-distance form as the runner-up in last year’s Duke of Edinburgh.

Race 3, 10:40 a.m. ET: Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1)

Top four:

#11 Satono Reve
#14 Flora of Bermuda
#8 Lazzat
#1 Annaf

The value’s long gone on #11 Satono Reve (9-2), who’s been shortening all the time in the British market. The Japanese shipper will be exceedingly popular in the World Pool as well, with the Hong Kong faithful ready to back a horse they’ve seen chase their superstar, Ka Ying Rising, in a pair of Group 1s at Sha Tin.

That formline with the world’s best sprinter makes Satono Reve difficult to resist, especially in the lightning-quick conditions that may not appeal as much to his key rivals. Although the straight course is a new variable, he showed plenty of power rallying up the hill in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) at Chukyo, suggesting that he’ll pack a similar punch here. Japan has yet to win at Royal Ascot, but the son of the great Lord Kanaloa is well positioned to score the breakthrough. 

At the same time, because these sprints can turn into a lottery, it wouldn’t be a surprise if a longshot crashes the party. #14 Flora of Bermuda (10-1), beaten all of a half-length when third in last fall’s course-and-distance British Champions Sprint (G1), signaled that she’s poised for another forward move with her comeback second. The Dark Angel filly missed by just a neck to #5 Inisherin (4-1) in the 1895 Duke of York (G2), the prep that’s furnished three of the past 10 winners. All had been unplaced at York.

Longtime antepost favorite #8 Lazzat (5-2) would have been more compelling with a touch of give in the ground. The French star can act on faster going, as his blistering time of 1:07.82 in the May 2 Prix Servanne at Chantilly establishes, but the question is whether he’ll find Ascot as hospitable. The French haven’t covered themselves in glory this week, and the same concern applies to compatriot #13 Topgear (7-1). To be fair, though, it should be said that a French sprinter, Rayevka, markedly outperformed expectations in Friday’s Commonwealth Cup (G1); she rattled into a terrific third at 26-1.

For a total swing at the fences, #1 Annaf (30-1) could be sitting on a massive effort for Mick Appleby. The Muhaarar gelding has plenty of back class as the third-placer in the 2023 King’s Stand (now the King Charles III) (G1) and hero of the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2) on Saudi Cup night 2024. Subsequently waylaid by a life-threatening case of pneumonia, he’s taken time to find his old form. His recent half-length third in Salisbury’s Cathedral S. in fast time could be taken as a hint. Adding cheekpieces and reuniting with jockey Rossa Ryan are likewise positive factors.

#12 Storm Boy (5-1) could be the latest O’Brien runner to improve out of sight from a prep flop. The Australian import was a top juvenile in his homeland, delivering a few smart efforts in Group 1 defeats at three. My hesitation, at the price, is that he hasn’t quite lived up to his early glamor colt reputation. If he does still have it in him, the Justify colt might thrive in a big sprint later on the calendar rather than right now in his second European start. 

Race 4, 11:20 a.m. ET: Jersey (G3)

Top three:

#6 Marvelman
#4 Comanche Brave
#15 California Dreamer

I’m usually looking for horses dropping in class and distance from mile classics into this seven-furlong spot, and several entrants fit that profile. But #6 Marvelman (6-1) has a pretty nifty classic form by proxy.

Last time out in the King Charles II S. at Newmarket, Marvelman traveled very strongly up front and forced favored Cosmic Year to pull out extra to pass him. Cosmic Year came back to place a clear second in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) to top three-year-old miler Field of Gold, who dominated Tuesday’s St James’s Palace (G1). Trainer Andrew Balding had pegged Marvelman as a Jersey type earlier in the spring, right off his Kempton maiden romp.

#4 Comanche Brave (4-1), a son of 2012 Jersey victress Ishvana, boasts a direct Field of Gold formline as the fifth in the Irish Guineas. The Donnacha O’Brien trainee has collateral form with another classic. When runner-up two starts ago in the Red Rocks (aka Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial) (G3), he went down by just a half-length to Henri Matisse, the next-out winner of the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) (G1). The Red Rocks third-placer, Arizona Blaze, was just denied narrowly in the Commonwealth Cup.

#15 California Dreamer (7-1), second to Lake Victoria as a 50-1 shot in the Irish 1000 Guineas (G1), saw her form boosted in Friday’s Coronation (G1). The Irish Guineas third, Cercene, scored a 31-1 surprise, with Irish Guineas also-ran January in a close third. California Dreamer is looking exposed by now with a 1-for-11 record, but she’s usually thereabouts, and the Adrian Murray filly ran a decent fifth in last year’s Albany (G3) here.

Of those exiting Newmarket’s 2000 Guineas (G1), #12 Seagulls Eleven (12-1) may have the best rationale. He’s been gelded since trailing home in the season’s first British classic. The Hugo Palmer trainee was a useful juvenile before losing the plot. 

#11 Saracen (6-1) has potential after his third in the Greenham (G3) to Jonquil and Rashabar, but his lack of racing experience could work against him in this kind of test. The class-climbing duo of #10 Remmooz (9-2), winner of both starts at Doncaster, and #13 Spy Chief (12-1), an expensive son of Kingman who broke through at Yarmouth last out, likewise have untapped talent. 

Good luck, and enjoy the Royal Ascot finale!