Sam Houston: We have a problem; you don't race enough

A poker friend of mine is fond of saying, "Play where you run good," and that advice can certainly apply to horse racing.

While I almost always succumb to Saratoga Race Course's siren song and play the races there more than I should given my (lack of) success there, I do try to pay special attention to my track stats.

Of the 50 tracks on which I placed a wager in 2016, these are the 13 on which I showed a profit (note all 3 Ohio & 2/3 TX tracks made list!) pic.twitter.com/Uw4FVcma0F

— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) January 3, 2017

Sam Houston topped the list last year, and I'm having a good meet again this year, posting a +12.07% ROI (a noticable difference from my -7.68% year-to-date (through March 13) ROI. It will take another big score to get me into last year's tripled-my-money territory, but I'm going to give it a shot because last year's "big score" actually came on closing day, which is today at the Houston oval.

How do I approach wagering at Sam Houston? It's the type of track where I like to have a really strong opinion and build around it. This may seem obvious, but there is an alternative, and that's to be more tolerant of caveman-type plays. Those don't work for me at Sam Houston where favorites can be relied upon. As the charts show below, when you have favorites winning at a 37% clip and Steve Asmussen among the hot trainers, you know there will be some short prices. The key there is some, as getting creative at the right time (first-time starters have been especially potent this meeting) can turn the sure-thing 4-to-5 into 10- or even 20-to-1 with the right ticket structure/opinions.

The blueprint for today's ticket structure is below with opinions on all 11 races. Pick 5s start in races 1 & 7 with Pick 4s in races 2 & 8. Rolling Pick 3s throughout the card. The featured 6th race--the $50,000 Star of Texas--is not a part of any Pick 4 or 5.

SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 4.42 - 1
Favorite Win%: 37%, Favorite Itm%: 68%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	65.63
Daily Double	72.06
Trifecta	406.24
Pick 3	405.04
Superfecta	2,381.91
Pick 4	2,289.80
Pick 5	5,131.94
Super High Five	12,011.49
Z-5 Super Hi-5	25,956.55

TRACK BIAS MEET(01/20 - 03/13) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   5.0fDirt 14 50% E Mid/Out   6.0fDirt 77 40% E Inside   1 MileDirt 15 53% E Rail/Ins   1m 70yDirt 37 46% E Outside   Turf Sprint 31 29% E/P Rail   Turf Routes 45 18% P Middle

TRACK BIAS WEEK(03/07 - 03/13) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   5.0fDirt 5 60% E Rail   6.0fDirt 10 50% E Middle   1 MileDirt 5 40% E Rail/Ins   1m 70yDirt 5 20% E/P Rail/Ins   Turf Sprint 2 0% E/P Middle   Turf Routes 1 0% S Inside

Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
Asmussen Steven M.	17	7	4	2	2.66	5	20%
Calhoun W. Bret	16	6	2	2	4.01	3	21%
Craddock Kari	8	3	2	0	6.86	0	17%
Loza, Jr. Efren	2	2	0	0	0.70	2	30%
Smith Dewey Paul	5	2	0	1	16.20	0	13%
Barton Amanda	6	2	0	0	27.25	1	14%
Milligan Allen	6	2	2	0	3.73	0	10%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
Parker Deshawn L.	23	9	3	1	4.62	6	25%
Diego Iram Vargas	23	8	4	4	6.73	6	21%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
Gonzalez Isai V.	13	0	2	2	22.76	1	11%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
Pivaral Gerber	13	0	0	2	28.30	0	6%

ABC grid: