Saratoga: Spot Plays for 2025 Belmont Stakes Day
Nakatomi wins at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)
June 4th, 2025
Saturday's Belmont Stakes Day program at Saratoga is tremendous in many respects, though you have to wonder if any true bombs will emerge from the many top-heavy graded stakes with several short-priced favorites on the morning line. But I'll be taking a swing against some of them as noted below.
Race 6: Wonder Again (G2), 1:55 p.m. ET
Editor's note: Due to heavy rain at Saratoga, the Wonder Again has been switched from turf to dirt, and Al Jafara has scratched.
Fading Nitrogen hasn't worked out too well this year, as she's won four consecutive stakes as the post-time favorite. She'll have that status again here as an early even-money choice, but this seems like a sneakily tough race from a depth perspective.
The Chad Brown-trained #1 Al Jafara (6-1) has yet to compete in a stakes, but is certainly bred to be that type. Notable in her family are sire Pinatubo, a juvenile champion in Europe, and her dam Predawn, who is a full sister to Epsom Oaks (G1) winner Qualify. The latter in turn produced Cualificar, runner-up in last Sunday's Prix du Jockey Club (G1), or French Derby.
The strong possibility of less-than-firm ground should give Al Jafara a boost, given her wins over soft at Chantilly and good at Keeneland. Also worth noting is that Brown has won the last three runnings of the Wonder Again, and six overall.
Race 7: True North (G3), 2:37 p.m. ET
No matter what the American Graded Stakes Committee might decree, this is a Grade 1 running of the True North. And whether the track is dry or a little wet, #4 Nakatomi (4-1) is the pick.
The veteran six-year-old loves Saratoga, and though he got a little dull after winning the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) last summer, he ran a near-winning race in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) to kick off this campaign. Trainer Wesley Ward is reportedly very happy with the way he's bounced back from his Middle East sojourn, so much so that he's entered him in the True North, rather than give him more time. The vibes appear strong for another good Spa showing.
Race 11: Woody Stephens (G1), 5:28 p.m. ET
An excellent renewal of this seven-furlong test for three-year-olds, with juvenile champion Citizen Bull and Chancer McPatrick likely to be rejuvenated with the cutback from two-turn races. However, neither represents much value. Instead, #8 Gunmetal (8-1) appears a longer shot worth taking a look at.
In addition to being one of several potential beneficiaries from a pace standpoint, he's less exposed than a number of others. He's 2-for-3 so far, including a dominating allowance score at Keeneland over the likes of Retribution, who bounced back to win the Chick Lang S. at Pimlico.
His one loss, in the Swale S., appears excusable. Not only was he conceding valuable experience, but he broke a little tardily and then proceeded to duel through a ridiculously fast pace. If able to show a little more rating restraint, he can get one of the first cracks at the tiring speed.
Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?
Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!
Also, come chat with our expert panel regarding Friday and Saturday racing during Saratoga's Friday card, including the Acorn S. (G1)!
