Scratching into Mondialiste to win the Arlington Million
August 12th, 2016
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It’s a competitive 12-horse field following the scratch of Decorated Knight with the European Tryster favored and the first- and third-place finishers from the United Nations—World Approval and Wake Forest, respectively—as the projected second and third choices on Joe Kristufek’s morning line.
But I don’t like any of those horses. I think Tryster will be overbet as “the” Euro, and the United Nations was a fine race, but it will be overvalued given its Grade 1absent the best U.S.-based turf horse in training Flintshire (who beat World Approval in the Manhattan at Belmont).
Decorated Knight was my pick before the afore-referenced scratch, but I'll stick with the Euro-loving vibe and elevate Mondialiste to my top pick. Last year's Woodbine Mile winner and Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up had a tough start to his six-year-old campaign when unplaced and beaten a combined 29 1/4 lengths by the likes of A Shin Hikari and Tepin, but he took a step in the right direction on a class drop to a Group 2 when 2nd beaten less than a length by Time Test in the York Stakes.
A return to form and pace to run at makes him worth a look in the 5-to-1 range.
Speaking of World Approval and Wake Forest, I’d almost have to use all U.S.-based horses if I use any of them because their Brisnet.com Speed Ratings are all similar. It’s tough for me to make a case for any of them over another. Every horse who ran in America last out ran a Speed Rating between 92-99.
I'll bet that one of the premier international runners (Tryster being the other one) will run at least a 100, and Mondialiste is the better bet at the projected prices.
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