Scully: Downs After Dark Pick 4 Play Saturday, May 16, 2026

Saturday’s Downs After Dark program at Churchill Downs gets underway at 6 p.m. ET and features the $350,000 Louisville (G3), which is headlined by the imposing Burnham Square. 

Considered a top American challenger for this fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) following an impressive comeback win in the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland, Burnham Square is listed as a 2-5 favorite versus five opponents. The Louisville goes as race 8, and a Pick 4 sequence will be offered in the races preceding it, beginning with race 4 at 7:26 p.m.

The Pick 4 gets underway after the Preakness (G1), which is scheduled for 7:01 p.m., and I will take a swing at the sequence, with my thoughts on the races below.

50-cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 4,9,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,2,4,5,7,12 with 7 ($27)

Race 4

#4 Sharons Pharoah (4-1) ships to Kentucky to meet entry-level turf allowance rivals following a nice maiden win on Santa Anita’s turf, earning strong Brisnet Speed and Pace numbers, scoring by a half-length. The American Pharoah gelding may have more to offer in this spot for Jonathon Thomas. I’ll also use debut maiden winner #9 Six O Clock (12-1) and #10 Doctrine (6-1), who ran well at Gulfstream earlier this year and fits better in this spot than at Keeneland.

Race 5

#3 Cool Cowboy (3-1) has improved his numbers in both starts since being claimed by Peter Miller and rates the edge in the six-furlong claiming event. #4 Shadow Coast (4-1) steps up off a nice win for Rohan Crichton and will be included with #5 Colonel Caliente (7-2), who returns to Churchill off a good second over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park.

Race 6

#5 Paynt Ya Later (15-1), a fine turf allowance winner on Kentucky Derby week last year, is a candidate to outrun her projected long odds, and I will spread with #1 She’s Lookin Lucky (5-1), #2 Miwa (6-1), #4 In the Stars (4-1), #7 Long Ago (6-1), and #12 Smiling Ellie (6-1).

Race 7

#7 Champagne Liberal (9-2) will face six rivals lacking speed in this 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer, and I like his chances on the front end. The three-year-old gelding missed the break when making his first start off the claim against maiden special weight rivals last time, but Champagne Liberal registered Brisnet Early Pace ratings in the 90s when finishing second in his debut two back. An ideal trip appears likely if he breaks with Abel Cedillo.