Scully: Pick 3 play for Belmont at Saratoga Friday

Friday’s 14-race Belmont at Saratoga program includes six stakes, and Grade 1 winners Good Cheer, Raging Sea, and She Feels Pretty loom as imposing favorites over the final six races on the card. I will recommend a Pick 3 play earlier in the afternoon.

#3 Ways and Means (6-5) is the one to beat in the Bed o’ Roses (G2), a seven-furlong sprint carded as the sixth race; the four-year-old filly likes Saratoga, winning the Test (G1) by open lengths last summer. And after finishing a decent third behind the top female sprinter in the nation, Kopion, in the Derby City Distaff (G1), Ways and Means appears destined to show more for Chad Brown in her second start back this year.

I expect Ways and Means to prove best and will seek to incorporate value with the probable odds-on favorite in a Pick 3 play, fading listed favorites in surrounding races.

Here is my ticket and thoughts on the other legs in the sequence.

$10 Pick 3 (races 5-7)

4,7 with 3 with 1,11 ($40)

Race 5

Ten are entered for the entry-level allowance/optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles, and I will tab #7 Dreamlike (9-2) in his second start back this season. A Grade 1 runner-up in the fall of 2023, Dreamlike ran well against tough competition in a pair of starts last year before something went wrong in the Stephen Foster (G1) in late June, forcing him to the sidelines for nearly 10 months. I won’t count his first start back in April against him. Dreamlike despised the synthetic footing, but we know he likes the dirt at Saratoga, breaking his maiden by more than six lengths at nine furlongs. The comebacker provided fitness, and Dreamlike has trained forwardly for his return from a freshening. The competition isn’t deep for the level, and Dreamlike rates as the one to beat based on Brisnet numbers.

I will also add #4 Costa Terra (20-1) to the mix. The gelding likes the distance and always tries hard at Saratoga, recording a 1-4-1 record from seven previous attempts, and I liked the improved tactical ability he’s shown in recent starts.

Race 7

A sharp turf maiden winner two back, #1 Hope Mission (15-1) was bet down to favoritism in a salty Kentucky Derby week turf allowance but received a terrible trip after breaking slowly from her outside post, traveling far off the pace while wide during the opening stages. She prefers to race up close and doesn’t have the versatility yet to overcome such adversity, eventually checking in fifth. The winner received a cush trip on the front end, establishing a new course record for her performance, and Hope Mission exited the effort as a rebound candidate. I expect a better trip today and will tab the four-year-old Medaglia d’Oro filly for an upset.

#11 Spool (10-1) will be included following a solid allowance tally at Aqueduct in her comeback. The Hard Spun filly has won two straight since switching to turf for Graham Motion, and Umberto Rispoli picks up the mount on the improving sophomore.

Good luck!