Scully: Singling Tamara in Breeders’ Cup Friday Pick 5

November 2nd, 2023

The Future Stars Friday program features five Breeders’ Cup races for two-year-olds at Santa Anita, and the Juvenile Fillies (G1) will spotlight the probable biggest favorite of the two-day event, Tamara.

Unbeaten from two starts, including a dazzling 6 3/4-length tour-de-force in the Del Mar Debutante (G1), #7 Tamara is listed as the 4-5 morning line favorite over 12 rivals in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies. The Richard Mandella-trained filly likely will be a shorter price come post time, and the Breeders’ Cup all-time winningest jockey, Mike Smith, will control the reins.

Tamara has never been two turns, but the added distance doesn’t rate as a valid concern. She’s by leading 2022 freshman sire Bolt d’Oro, a son of Medaglia d’Oro who looks poised to make a mark in future Triple Crown events, and Tamara is out of four-time champion and three-time Breeders’ Cup race winner Beholder, an earner of more than $6.1 million who counted a romping score in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1) among her 16 stakes victories.

In the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante, Tamara registered a 100 Brisnet Speed rating that lays over her Juvenile Fillies rivals, and it’s easy to imagine bigger days ahead for the promising lass.

I won’t go against Tamara, singling the odds-on favorite in the second leg of my Pick 5, and will try to beat some short-priced individuals in other spots.

50-cent BC Friday Pick 5 ticket (Races 5-9): 2,8,10,12 with 7 with 6,10,12 with 4,8 with 3,7,8,9 ($48)

Juvenile Turf

#2 No Nay Mets (4-1) looks like the inside speed with Irad Ortiz Jr., and I didn’t like the draw for a couple rivals near him — morning-line favorite Big Evs and co-second choice Crimson Advocate. I will add a few horses from the outside, #8 Cherry Blossom (12-1) for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore; #10 Valiant Force (12-1), who weakened over soft ground at six furlongs last time but looked good winning the Norfolk (G2) at Saturday’s five-furlong trip over firmer turf; and #12 Committee of One (8-1), who appears to be coming on for Steve Asmussen following a rallying win in the Indian Summer at Keeneland.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

The third leg in the sequence, the Juvenile Fillies Turf marks the first two-turn start for morning-line favorite She Feels Pretty, who will look to work out a trip from off the pace in post 11. #12 Hard to Justify (6-1) owns more positional speed, racing up close in a sharp Miss Grillo (G2) victory last out, and I’ll tab the unbeaten filly for five-time Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Chad Brown and Flavien Prat

#6 Porta Fortuna (5-1) will be used off a Group 1 win over good turf at Newmarket, and I liked the win by #10 Austere (12-1) in the Juvenile Filles at Kentucky Downs last out.


#4 Timberlake (4-1) put it all together when removing blinkers in the Champagne (G1), displaying a bold turn of foot to win going away, and I give him the edge in the Juvenile for Brad Cox. Champagne runner-up #8 General Partner (8-1) displayed improved gate speed last time, showing the way in hand on a clear lead, and I like his chances to break on top and set the pace. He rates as a candidate to lead all the way with Manny Franco.

Juvenile Turf

Didn’t like the inside post draw for morning line favorite River Tiber, who must negotiate traffic in his two-turn debut after a series of sprint races overseas, and I will incorporate his stablemate along with a trio of North American runners.

#3 Tok Tok (20-1) appeared loaded in upper stretch of the Bourbon (G2) but was stopped in traffic, and he’s capable of better for Graham Motion and John Velazquez. #7 Agate Road (8-1) appears to have a future for Todd Pletcher off a sharp win in the Pilgrim (G2), #8 Unquestionable (4-1) looks capable for O’Brien and Frankie Dettori, and #9 Endlessly (5-1) merits serious respect for Michael McCarthy following a pair of convincing stakes wins at Del Mar and Santa Anita.