Scully's Derby Top 10

No points toward a Kentucky Derby berth were available last week, but a couple of three-year-olds were added to the top 10 list following impressive showings

Ocean Knight (Curlin) makes his debut at #8 after capturing the January 31 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Now two for two, the bay colt overcame a wide trip and a slow pace to narrowly defeat a game Divining Rod (Tapit), who had everything his own way on the front end.

His 95 BRIS Speed rating is better than it looks at face value given the moderate early fractions in the 1 1/16-mile race and the lightly-raced colt appears to have plenty of room for improvement. Ocean Knight joins #6 Frosted (Tapit) and #7 Imperia (Medaglia d’Oro) from the Kiaran McLaughlin shedrow.

The Great War (War Front) comes in at #10 following a 7 ¼-length decision in the January 31 96Rock, 6 ½-furlong test on Turfway’s Polytrack, and his speed could prove dangerous down the road.

I liked his effort last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, holding for fourth after chasing a hot pace in his dirt and two-turn bow, and the formerly Irish-based colt remained stateside afterward under the care of new trainer Wesley Ward. He possesses plenty of early zip, and other observers have been quick to point out the close relation to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Zensational, but this is also the immediate female family of confirmed router Departing, a son of War Front who has earned more than $1.5 million.

The Great War netted a 97 BRIS Speed rating against a field of overmatched rivals and we’ll get a better gauge when he returns to two turns next time, most likely in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial on February 28.

Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be offered this weekend as well as a pair of scoring races, the Robert B. Lewis (G2) at Santa Anita and Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. The Lewis marks the highly-anticipated 2015 debut of Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) winner Dortmund (Big Brown), who figures to receive a stiff test from Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Firing Line (Line of David).

The Kentucky Derby is 12 weeks from Saturday.

1. Dortmund – Opened career with a pair of romping wins and massive colt displayed plenty of grit when getting up to capture the Los Alamitos Futurity in two-turn and stakes debut. He’s worked five times since January 4 for Bob Baffert and will be scary proposition for rivals if he takes a major step forward (as many expect) at age three. Looking forward to his Lewis return.
2. Carpe Diem – Rolled to a convincing win when making his second start in Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and overcame unfavorable Breeders’ Cup Juvenile trip to gamely edge Upstart for second. Lots to like from a pedigree and talent perspective, and leads Todd Pletcher brigade. February 21 Fountain of Youth on deck.
3. Upstart – Netted a 105 BRIS Speed rating for his outstanding victory in the Holy Bull (G2); five of the last six Kentucky Derby winners failed to reach that threshold. Fountain of Youth possible.
4. Texas Red – Trainer Keith Desormeaux got what he wanted from neck second in seven-furlong San Vicente (G2). Late runner will be the horse to beat in February 21 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
5. American Pharoah – Two-year-old champ is back on the worktab for Baffert, breezing three furlongs on February 2, and exciting colt dominated top-class competition on the front end last season. Let’s hope for no hiccups en route to March 14 Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn.
6. Frosted – No disgrace finishing a clear second to Upstart in Holy Bull and Tapit colt remains an extremely promising prospect. Fountain of Youth is logical.
7. Imperia – Late runner made a nice transition to dirt finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and anxious to see whether he can continue to move forward at age three. Targeting the Risen Star.
8. Ocean Knight – Continued to display a huge upside making second career outing in Sam Davis and has fans of sire Curlin excited. Expecting further improvement in March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
9. Firing Line – His two-year-old form was strong and stalker could be a major factor in upcoming preps; he’ll square off against Dortmund in Lewis.
10. The Great War – Based on Turfway’s Polytrack with Wesley Ward, he may get only one chance to qualify in the March 21 Spiral. Talented colt possesses plenty of speed.

Photo Credit: S V Photography